HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
A Collection of Posts on the Aggressive Acts Of China Towards Her Neighbors in The East And South China Seas ,The Philippines, Vietnam and Japan. These are in day time order though not all carry dates. The oldest posts are at the top of the scroll, under more recent background reading material. If you want to search from the most recent to latest just click and hold the button just below the up arrow on your right and run down to the bottom of the scroll and then by using the up arrow or button when you scroll up you are searching from most recent to oldest posts.
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In the interest of full disclosure we certainly aren't members of the liberal media and we aren't Fox News either. We don't offer our readers "fair and balanced" views, we offer "expert opinion". As often as possible when experts disagree and opposing views are offered to us, we try to offer them to you. However, basically we deal in expert opinion, mostly our own in house variety.
So when we discuss China you should know that we use terms like the "Middle Kingdom" and often invoke a much used symbol of the Middle Kingdom, the dragon, because we don't think of China as a "Communist State". China, after all provides its citizens with less of a social security system than that of the supposedly capitalist United States, and far less than most modern Western nations from Canada to Finland. We think of China as "State Capitalists". Their government owned enterprises, as well as their growing private sector are run for profit.
Our mental image of the nation, when we allow it a visual element, is usually related to the "Middle Kingdom". When China historically referred to itself as the "Middle Kingdom" it saw itself as the Center of the Universe, not as sort of "middle power". China had a powerful Merchant Marine and sought to draw all of the Pacific Basin onto itself through what we would call today mercantile or "soft" power.
The Dragon was a powerful symbol of China back in the era of the "Middle Kingdom" and is strongly connected with the nation to this day. So when we began to analyze Chinese maritime events we seemed to naturally gravitate to the title "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". The title seemed to just come out of the ether. We decided to do a little research.
We soon discovered that we aren't the first to associate the image of the dragon with China's People's Liberation, Army Navy (PLAN). Way back in 1969 we found a China Brief article that phased the concept a little less certainly by the title of "Can the Dragon Swim?". That was the appropriate question back in 1969 but as time marched on it became obvious that the dragon, indeed can swim. A number of analysts writing in typically obscure political and naval journals began to ask the question in the form of "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". Finally in the Naval Institute's March 1999 PROCEEDINGS, then Lieutenant Commander Wayne R. Hugar writing in Vol. 125-51 on pages 48-51 titled his analytical article on the PLAN, "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?"
Our search also revealed that the words "how far will the dragon swim" appear in numerous pet magazines in association with the care (including bathing instructions) of various large lizards, both as part of articles and as article titles. So basically we think reducing the question of what are the intentions of China relative to its obvious continuing naval development; can be articulated with the more colorful expression "How Far will The Dragon Swim?" Since we are fairly confident that the words are in the public domain we will continue to use them as a sort of shorthand to alert our readers that an article is going to discuss PLAN developments, or issues related to rival regional naval powers; and as a short hand reminder that far more expert discussions are available through both the Naval Institute's Proceedings and their book titles, the most recent of which on the PLAN we first described in our May 21, 2012 article and we are continuing to describe in our "Naval Interest Section".
We are happy to acknowledge Lcdr Hugar's 1999 article as the most prominent early use of the term in this context. We hope by our continuing to use the term and linking our readers as we did in our blog of May 21, 2012 to the Naval Institute that we will help the interested reader who is probably not a big consumer of obscure political journals and Department of State white papers to find more ink on the subject by informed naval writers. We can think of three places to find such; The Naval Institute, the Naval Intelligence Professionals QUARTERLY,which often runs related articles under the banner "China Watch" and here among the blogs and "Naval Interest" pages of American Admiralty Books.We also invite our readers to join in the discussion by using our "Comments" section at the end of this and every blog.
No we didn't invent the swimming reptile concept, but we think the swimming dragon is worth careful observation.To help our aquatic dragon watchers here again is a hyperlink to the U.S. Naval Institute; and for the first time in our pages, a hyperlink to the Naval Intelligence Professionals (association).
Naval Institute: http://www.usni.org/
Naval Intelligence Professionals: http://www.navintpro.org/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is a real swimming Komodo Dragon from Contemporary Nomad.com Contemporary Nomad .Com
Editor's note: This is an updated version of a post that we first published June 5, 2012 as we started our Dragon watch. With more and more Dragon news coming daily we thought this concept was worth introducing to our readers who have joined us since June 5, 2012
In the interest of full disclosure we certainly aren't members of the liberal media and we aren't Fox News either. We don't offer our readers "fair and balanced" views, we offer "expert opinion". As often as possible when experts disagree and opposing views are offered to us, we try to offer them to you. However, basically we deal in expert opinion, mostly our own in house variety.
So when we discuss China you should know that we use terms like the "Middle Kingdom" and often invoke a much used symbol of the Middle Kingdom, the dragon, because we don't think of China as a "Communist State". China, after all provides its citizens with less of a social security system than that of the supposedly capitalist United States, and far less than most modern Western nations from Canada to Finland. We think of China as "State Capitalists". Their government owned enterprises, as well as their growing private sector are run for profit,ruthlessly.
Our mental image of the nation, when we allow it a visual element, is usually related to the "Middle Kingdom". When China historically referred to itself as the "Middle Kingdom" it saw itself as the Center of the Universe, not as sort of "middle power". China had a powerful Merchant Marine and sought to draw all of the Pacific Basin onto itself through what we would call today mercantile or "soft" power.
The Dragon was a powerful symbol of China back in the era of the "Middle Kingdom" and is strongly connected with the nation to this day. So when we began to analyze Chinese maritime events we seemed to naturally gravitate to the title "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". The title seemed to just come out of the ether. We decided to do a little research.
We soon discovered that we aren't the first to associate the image of the dragon with China's People's Liberation, Army Navy (PLAN). Way back in 1969 we found a China Brief article that phased the concept a little less certainly by the title of "Can the Dragon Swim?". That was the appropriate question back in 1969 but as time marched on it became obvious that the dragon, indeed can swim. A number of analysts writing in typically obscure political and naval journals began to ask the question in the form of "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". Finally in the Naval Institute's March 1999 PROCEEDINGS, then Lieutenant Commander Wayne R. Hugar writing in Vol. 125-51 on pages 48-51 titled his analytic article on the PLAN, "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?"
Our search also revealed that the words "how far will the dragon swim" appear in numerous pet magazines in association with the care (including bathing instructions) of various large lizards, both as part of articles and as article titles. So basically we think reducing the question of what are the intentions of China relative to its obvious continuing naval development; can be articulated with the more colorful expression "How Far will The Dragon Swim?" Since we are fairly confident that the words are in the public domain we will continue to use them as a sort of shorthand to alert our readers that an article is going to discuss PLAN developments, or issues related to rival regional naval powers; and as a short hand reminder that far more expert discussions are available through both the Naval Institute's Proceedings and their book titles, one of which on the PLAN we first described in our May 21, 2012 article and we are continuing to describe in our "Naval Interest Section".
We are happy to acknowledge Lcdr Hugar's 1999 article as the most prominent early use of the term in this context. We hope by our continuing to use the term and linking our readers as we did in our blog of May 21, 2012 to the Naval Institute that we will help the interested reader who is probably not a big consumer of obscure political journals and Department of State white papers to find more ink on the subject by informed naval writers. We can think of three places to find such; The Naval Institute PROCEEDINGS and Books, the Naval Intelligence Professionals QUARTERLY,which often runs related articles under the banner "China Watch" (available on line) and here among the blogs and "Naval Interest" pages of American Admiralty Books.We also invite our readers to join in the discussion by using our "Comments" section at the end of this and every blog.
No we didn't invent the swimming reptile concept, but we think the swimming dragon is worth careful observation.To help our aquatic dragon watchers here again is a hyperlink to the U.S. Naval Institute; and a hyperlink to the Naval Intelligence Professionals (association).
Naval Institute: http://www.usni.org/
Naval Intelligence Professionals: http://www.navintpro.org/
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BACK GROUND READING:
A GAME OF SHARK AND MINNOWS
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/
The Spratly Islands Dispute Between China and the Philippines Explained with Maps, Photos and Video.
IMAGE: NASA Public Domain
The Spratly Islands are mostly uninhabited, some are almost within sight of the Philippine China Sea beaches. At least one is inhabited by Philippine nationals and several have long been under the administration of a single Philippine municipality. Most of the islands are well within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines as constructed and submitted under the current United Nations Law of The Sea Convention. By codified modern international law most of the Spratlys are internationally recognized as Philippine territory. In the linked article by the New York Times News Graphics Service the situation is explained in text with kind of detail that only print media can provide, but in an unusual mix of computer format mixed in with the explanation of the dispute in text there is a story in video, still photography, scrolling text and sound of a visit by the relevant Philippine mayor to a derelict naval hull on which eight Philippine marines live in isolation and utter squalor in a seemingly never ending stand off with Chinese Coast Guard units claiming a collection of barely emergent rocks clearly owned by the Philippines. The text is extensive and clear, the photography vivid. This is the best explanation and detailed background article we have found on the Spratly Islands dispute. We urge you to click on the provided link, check it out and book mark it for future reference as the situation in the China Seas continues to unravel due to Chinese maritime aggression.To move through the presentation simply scroll down when ready, the site handles the transition from one media to the other flawlessly , just scroll down when ready. If you forget to book mark the story we will be indefinitely retaining it on our News page.
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/
The Spratly Islands are mostly uninhabited, some are almost within sight of the Philippine China Sea beaches. At least one is inhabited by Philippine nationals and several have long been under the administration of a single Philippine municipality. Most of the islands are well within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines as constructed and submitted under the current United Nations Law of The Sea Convention. By codified modern international law most of the Spratlys are internationally recognized as Philippine territory. In the linked article by the New York Times News Graphics Service the situation is explained in text with kind of detail that only print media can provide, but in an unusual mix of computer format mixed in with the explanation of the dispute in text there is a story in video, still photography, scrolling text and sound of a visit by the relevant Philippine mayor to a derelict naval hull on which eight Philippine marines live in isolation and utter squalor in a seemingly never ending stand off with Chinese Coast Guard units claiming a collection of barely emergent rocks clearly owned by the Philippines. The text is extensive and clear, the photography vivid. This is the best explanation and detailed background article we have found on the Spratly Islands dispute. We urge you to click on the provided link, check it out and book mark it for future reference as the situation in the China Seas continues to unravel due to Chinese maritime aggression.To move through the presentation simply scroll down when ready, the site handles the transition from one media to the other flawlessly , just scroll down when ready. If you forget to book mark the story we will be indefinitely retaining it on our News page.
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/
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Naval Interests:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
American Admiralty Books Didn't Invent Swimming Reptiles
In the interest of full disclosure we certainly aren't members of the liberal media and we aren't Fox News either. We don't offer our readers "fair and balanced" views, we offer "expert opinion". As often as possible when experts disagree and opposing views are offered to us, we try to offer them to you. However, basically we deal in expert opinion, mostly our own in house variety.
So when we discuss China you should know that we use terms like the "Middle Kingdom" and often invoke a much used symbol of the Middle Kingdom, the dragon, because we don't think of China as a "Communist State". China, after all provides its citizens with less of a social security system than that of the supposedly capitalist United States, and far less than most modern Western nations from Canada to Finland. We think of China as "State Capitalists". Their government owned enterprises, as well as their growing private sector are run for profit.
Our mental image of the nation, when we allow it a visual element, is usually related to the "Middle Kingdom". When China historically referred to itself as the "Middle Kingdom" it saw itself as the Center of the Universe, not as sort of "middle power". China had a powerful Merchant Marine and sought to draw all of the Pacific Basin onto itself through what we would call today mercantile or "soft" power.
The Dragon was a powerful symbol of China back in the era of the "Middle Kingdom" and is strongly connected with the nation to this day. So when we began to analyze Chinese maritime events we seemed to naturally gravitate to the title "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". The title seemed to just come out of the ether. We decided to do a little research.
We soon discovered that we aren't the first to associate the image of the dragon with China's People's Liberation, Army Navy (PLAN). Way back in 1969 we found a China Brief article that phased the concept a little less certainly by the title of "Can the Dragon Swim?". That was the appropriate question back in 1969 but as time marched on it became obvious that the dragon, indeed can swim. A number of analysts writing in typically obscure political and naval journals began to ask the question in the form of "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". Finally in the Naval Institute's March 1999 PROCEEDINGS, then Lieutenant Commander Wayne R. Hugar writing in Vol. 125-51 on pages 48-51 titled his analytical article on the PLAN, "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?"
Our search also revealed that the words "how far will the dragon swim" appear in numerous pet magazines in association with the care (including bathing instructions) of various large lizards, both as part of articles and as article titles. So basically we think reducing the question of what are the intentions of China relative to its obvious continuing naval development; can be articulated with the more colorful expression "How Far will The Dragon Swim?" Since we are fairly confident that the words are in the public domain we will continue to use them as a sort of shorthand to alert our readers that an article is going to discuss PLAN developments, or issues related to rival regional naval powers; and as a short hand reminder that far more expert discussions are available through both the Naval Institute's Proceedings and their book titles, the most recent of which on the PLAN we first described in our May 21, 2012 article and we are continuing to describe in our "Naval Interest Section".
We are happy to acknowledge Lcdr Hugar's 1999 article as the most prominent early use of the term in this context. We hope by our continuing to use the term and linking our readers as we did in our blog of May 21, 2012 to the Naval Institute that we will help the interested reader who is probably not a big consumer of obscure political journals and Department of State white papers to find more ink on the subject by informed naval writers. We can think of three places to find such; The Naval Institute, the Naval Intelligence Professionals QUARTERLY,which often runs related articles under the banner "China Watch" and here among the blogs and "Naval Interest" pages of American Admiralty Books.We also invite our readers to join in the discussion by using our "Comments" section at the end of this and every blog.
No we didn't invent the swimming reptile concept, but we think the swimming dragon is worth careful observation.To help our aquatic dragon watchers here again is a hyperlink to the U.S. Naval Institute; and for the first time in our pages, a hyperlink to the Naval Intelligence Professionals (association).
Naval Institute: http://www.usni.org/
Naval Intelligence Professionals: http://www.navintpro.org/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval Interests:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
American Admiralty Books Didn't Invent Swimming Reptiles
Here is a real swimming Komodo Dragon from Contemporary Nomad.com Contemporary Nomad .Com
Editor's note: This is an updated version of a post that we first published June 5, 2012 as we started our Dragon watch. With more and more Dragon news coming daily we thought this concept was worth introducing to our readers who have joined us since June 5, 2012
In the interest of full disclosure we certainly aren't members of the liberal media and we aren't Fox News either. We don't offer our readers "fair and balanced" views, we offer "expert opinion". As often as possible when experts disagree and opposing views are offered to us, we try to offer them to you. However, basically we deal in expert opinion, mostly our own in house variety.
So when we discuss China you should know that we use terms like the "Middle Kingdom" and often invoke a much used symbol of the Middle Kingdom, the dragon, because we don't think of China as a "Communist State". China, after all provides its citizens with less of a social security system than that of the supposedly capitalist United States, and far less than most modern Western nations from Canada to Finland. We think of China as "State Capitalists". Their government owned enterprises, as well as their growing private sector are run for profit,ruthlessly.
Our mental image of the nation, when we allow it a visual element, is usually related to the "Middle Kingdom". When China historically referred to itself as the "Middle Kingdom" it saw itself as the Center of the Universe, not as sort of "middle power". China had a powerful Merchant Marine and sought to draw all of the Pacific Basin onto itself through what we would call today mercantile or "soft" power.
The Dragon was a powerful symbol of China back in the era of the "Middle Kingdom" and is strongly connected with the nation to this day. So when we began to analyze Chinese maritime events we seemed to naturally gravitate to the title "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". The title seemed to just come out of the ether. We decided to do a little research.
We soon discovered that we aren't the first to associate the image of the dragon with China's People's Liberation, Army Navy (PLAN). Way back in 1969 we found a China Brief article that phased the concept a little less certainly by the title of "Can the Dragon Swim?". That was the appropriate question back in 1969 but as time marched on it became obvious that the dragon, indeed can swim. A number of analysts writing in typically obscure political and naval journals began to ask the question in the form of "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". Finally in the Naval Institute's March 1999 PROCEEDINGS, then Lieutenant Commander Wayne R. Hugar writing in Vol. 125-51 on pages 48-51 titled his analytic article on the PLAN, "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?"
Our search also revealed that the words "how far will the dragon swim" appear in numerous pet magazines in association with the care (including bathing instructions) of various large lizards, both as part of articles and as article titles. So basically we think reducing the question of what are the intentions of China relative to its obvious continuing naval development; can be articulated with the more colorful expression "How Far will The Dragon Swim?" Since we are fairly confident that the words are in the public domain we will continue to use them as a sort of shorthand to alert our readers that an article is going to discuss PLAN developments, or issues related to rival regional naval powers; and as a short hand reminder that far more expert discussions are available through both the Naval Institute's Proceedings and their book titles, one of which on the PLAN we first described in our May 21, 2012 article and we are continuing to describe in our "Naval Interest Section".
We are happy to acknowledge Lcdr Hugar's 1999 article as the most prominent early use of the term in this context. We hope by our continuing to use the term and linking our readers as we did in our blog of May 21, 2012 to the Naval Institute that we will help the interested reader who is probably not a big consumer of obscure political journals and Department of State white papers to find more ink on the subject by informed naval writers. We can think of three places to find such; The Naval Institute PROCEEDINGS and Books, the Naval Intelligence Professionals QUARTERLY,which often runs related articles under the banner "China Watch" (available on line) and here among the blogs and "Naval Interest" pages of American Admiralty Books.We also invite our readers to join in the discussion by using our "Comments" section at the end of this and every blog.
No we didn't invent the swimming reptile concept, but we think the swimming dragon is worth careful observation.To help our aquatic dragon watchers here again is a hyperlink to the U.S. Naval Institute; and a hyperlink to the Naval Intelligence Professionals (association).
Naval Institute: http://www.usni.org/
Naval Intelligence Professionals: http://www.navintpro.org/
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NAVAL INTEREST:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
The "Dragon" of course is China, or more specifically, the PLAN or people's Liberation Army Navy" which recently announced its completion of the conversion of a former Russian air craft carrier into their own training and experimental carrier. It will probably be another one to two years before this new carrier is seen in a foreign port and the Chinese, probably truthfully describe the carrier as intended for coastal defense, training, and experimentation vice force projection. This is probably true because of the long learning curve that is associated with full fledged carrier operations. China has a long way to go and they know it but the direction of travel of the dragon is definitely seaward. Not only is China locked into several controversies over the ownership of a number of islands in the North and South China seas, but the Middle Kingdom has recently expressed serious concern over the Arctic, a region where the conventional wisdom says they have no dog in the race. It is clear that China means to become a global naval power at some point in the not so distant future.
Since China , like the United States has global economic interest this development need not be viewed as a direct threat to the United States but the potential future rise of an actual naval peer can not be ignored. This is why so many naval thinkers are focused on the PLAN right now. As usual, what is on the mind of those in the naval establishment who "dare to think speak and write" is also on the mind and in the publishing program of the U.S. Naval Institute. If you would like to "read up" on the swimming dragon the Naval Institute has at least three books that should be on every "navalists" summer reading list, these are:
Red Star Over The Pacific by Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes, ISBN 978-1-59114-390-1
China The United States and 21st Century Sea Power, Defining a Maritime Security Partnership, edited by Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and Nan Li, ISBN 978-1-59114-234-0
The Great Wall at SEA , Second edition by Bernard D. Cole, ISBN 978-1-59114-142-6
People's Liberation Army Navy, Combat Systems Technology 1949 -2010, by James C. Bussert and Bruce A. Elleman, ISBN 978-1-59114-080-1
These three works plus some of the back issues of the Naval Institute's PROCEEDINGS which has been following the wake of the "dragon" for years will bring you up to speed on all of the PLAN issues. The books are priced from roughly $37 to $48 and are immediately available from the Naval Institute. The Institute may be contacted at www.usni.org by phone at 800 233 8764. The books are discounted if you are a member. We will try to get a review and a hyper link for instant purchase up in our "Naval Interest" section as soon as possible. However when we review books published by the Naval Institute it is simply to provide the prospective reader with a better understanding of the contents, if a book made it through the editorial board of the Naval Institute we think naval professionals should read it. In fact we think real naval professionals should be members of the institute. If you are not willing or able to acquire a copy of these works for you professional library we've included the "ISBN" number, this is the International Book Binding Number which will help your lending library find copies for you. Read about the" swimming dragon" with the Naval Institute and if you haven't already done so, join the Institute and "dare to think, speak, and write".
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11/24/2012
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Today we bring you a link to a great background essay on China's sea expansion by the think tank Stratfor. As we have been following the growth and increasing aggressiveness of the Chinese Navy in our "How Far Will The Dragon Swim" series of opinion blogs and news service features we've provided little background beyond the 1980s. Our coverage in the series opened with the murderous attack of the Chinese Navy on Vietnamese naval personnel in waters very close to Vietnam and very far from China. The linked Stratfor article takes us back to ancient times and brings us forward to the present and helps explain the stubborn apparent illogical Chinese position and why it is so difficult for the Chinese national leadership to abandon this unproductive policy. The first paragraph appears below, to read the full article click on the link and that will take you to the Stratfor website and the full article.
The Paradox of China's Naval Strategy
Over the past decade, the South China Sea has become one of the most volatile flashpoints in East Asia. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan each assert sovereignty over part or all of the sea, and these overlapping claims have led to diplomatic and even military standoffs in recent years.
Because the sea hosts numerous island chains, is rich in mineral and energy resources and has nearly a third of the world's maritime shipping pass through its waters, its strategic value to these countries is obvious. For China, however, control over the South China Sea is more than just a practical matter and goes to the center of Beijing's foreign policy dilemma: how to assert its historical maritime claims while maintaining the nonconfrontational foreign policy established by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1980.
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NAVAL INTEREST
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Into the Territory of its Neighbors
Philippine Naval Forces West chief, Commodore Rustom Peña said Thursday that Navy ships are on standby, ready to sail to the Spratly Island's Pagasa Island to inform the Chinese fishing vessels in the area that they are within Philippine territory and that they should leave. Pagasa is occupied by Philippine civilians and garrisoned with Philippine troops. There are presently 20 Chinese vessels in the lagoon.
In a phone interview, the Commodore said the 20 Chinese fishing vessels were monitored to be around five nautical miles from Pagasa island, Philippine Territory.
“We will just investigate and then if situation warrants, we will advise them (20 Chinese fishing boats) that that’s our territory and they should leave," said Commodore Peña.
The Commodore noted that the Navy ships could not presently sail to the location of the Chinese fishing boats because of rough seas. He said the Navy ships will sail for the area as soon as the weather condition improves.
“We are monitoring them. They are not actually fishing, they are just seeking shelter…There were instances in the past where Vietnamese [vessels] also took shelter in the area because there are portions there that can [provide] cover for waves,” said Peña.
Commodore Peña added that two Chinese ships were also monitored near Mischief Reef, a Chinese-occupied area which is about 130 nautical miles from Puerto Princesa Cit, Phillipines.
Pagasa island is largest among the nine areas that are occupied by Filipino forces in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese claim the entire Spratlys.
Due to mineral and fisheries wealth , the Spratlys is being claimed in part by the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei and is being claimed in its entirety by China . — DVM, GMA News
AAction could start as early as later _._,_.___
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July 15, 2012
Naval Interest:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Into waters he doesn't Know Very Well as His Recent Grounding Illustrates.
As we report this, it is Sunday July 15, 2012. Last Wednesday a Chinese naval frigate ran aground while patrolling disputed waters in the South China Sea. Of course "disputed" is a relative term. The ship was only 70 miles off of the Republic of the Philippines Province of Palawan. The nearest bit of Chinese undisputed territory is a lot more distant than that and no where near the usual 200 miles accorded to an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under international conventions. The event at least begs the question of how naval professionals can go aground in what they claim are their own territorial waters. Why don't they know their supposedly "own waters" better? Oddly, Philippine Coast Guard craft don't go aground there.
China ("the dragon", as we refer to China and its navy in this long running series) doesn't care about international conventions. China claims sovereign rights over the entire South China Sea. The fact that some of the islands are clearly located within the Exclusive Economic Zones of Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, or most troublesome, Taiwan, doesn't seem to impress the Dragon any more than the international convention that limits outright claims of territorial waters (as distinguished from Outer Continental Shelf Waters or Exclusive Economic Zones) to 12 miles from a base line ashore on the mainland of the adjacent coastal state.
Today, Sunday July 15, 2012 the Chinese Navy freed its frigate from the Half Moon Shoal in the Spratlys, only 70 miles from The Philippine Province of Palawan. The frigate had been in the area on what the dragon calls "routine sovereignty patrols". The patrol consisted of discouraging Philippine fishermen from entering their own traditional and internationally recognized EEZ waters. The Philippines have asked Bejing for an explanation of this obvious encroachment into their waters. Don't hold your breath Philippines, the Dragon has stated its case , it owns the South China sea because it has the might to enforce its will, or at least it thinks so.
Earlier in the year the Dragon stood off with the Philippines over a similar incursion into traditional Philippine waters at Scarborough Shoal. There was no shooting, but the stand off didn't end until foul weather forced all parties out of the area. We have been following these developments in the South China Sea because the national media rarely pays any attention, but we find the area a potential naval combat flash point. The Dragon has a lot of naval power and it is constantly increasing. We worry about the Philippines because they are very weak in comparison to Chinese naval power,and they are our ally.
So far the Dragon has dealt with the Philippines with less violence than they have with other weak neighbors. Could it be that it is because the Philippines is a long standing historic U.S. ally? The Dragon treads a little lightly around real naval powers like Japan and India. But a look at how the Dragon dealt with unarmed sailors of Vietnam, viewed at the time as both powerless and friendless is illustrative of what can happen if the Dragon doesn't feel the presence of some counter power. This is one ruthless and troublesome Dragon in its swimming apparition.
We have repeated the hyperlink below which depicts the Chinese Navy machine gunning dozens of Vietnamese sailors planting their national flag in an unarmed exercise off of one of the islands legitimately claimed by Vietnam. We apologize if you are a regular reader and have seen this before. If you are new to our coverage of the South China Sea we feel you need to see the Dragon in action. Another misstep like the one caught on tape with one of our allies like Japan or the Philippines and the U.S. Pacific Fleet and the dragon could be at each other's throats over night..
If you are new to issue here is a hyperlink to an over view:
And for everyone, a geographical brief of the Spratly Islands, a major bone of contention".
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Naval Interest:
THE DRAGON AND THE TIGER
Let Us Introduce You to the Tiger
China, we refer to as "the Dragon" in our series on the People's Liberation Army Navy PLAN. The PLAN is one of the premier emerging navies of the world and is clearly slated for much more development by China. The Dragon has exhibited some interests in the Indian Ocean where lurks the "Tiger" our term for the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy is a fully emerged navy that has many years of successful aircraft carrier operations under its belt and is in possession of steady growth and modernization plans. The Indian Navy is making the term "Indian Ocean" more a reality every day. More over, this is the navy of the world's largest democracy.
Here at American Admiralty Books we make no bones about being admirers of the Indian Navy and we are concerned that U.S. /Indian relations are not warmer than they are. We have interests and commerce moving through the Indian Ocean at a time when we are badly stressed to provide naval coverage in the Pacific. The administration wants to "pivot" towards the Pacific. But problems and commitments such as counter piracy patrols and protecting oil routes are likely to present real challenges to a shrinking U.S. Navy requiring more ships in the Pacific. Like us, our NATO and EU allies are a long way from home, and in economic trouble, no doubt stressed to maintain the naval presence we need in the Indian ocean.
Yet the Indian Ocean has a real navy and it belongs to a real democracy that has exhibited respect for the concept of freedom of the seas. We think it is time for all English speaking naval professionals to learn all they can about the Indian nation and its ever increasingly competent navy. We think the world can trust Indian leadership in the Indian Ocean but our leaders over the years have obviously left some doubt about our willingness to get behind this democratic regional leader. Just because India is not always willing to follow a Western lead does not mean that it can not be trusted with protecting international vessel traffic and enforcing international law in this vast ocean, where we have so much at stake and are so stressed to maintain serious naval presence. Its time to get serious about India being an important naval power, and unlike the Dragon, the Tiger's increasing, and in terms of the dragon, superior swimming ability is nothing that we have to be afraid of.
We urge our "Naval Interest" readers to join us in studying this powerful, and rapidly modernizing, and capable navy. Below are some hyperlinks to Indian Navy information, starting with their own English language web site:
Here is a general description and history:
Here are some recent news items on the Indian Navy:https://www.google.com/webhp?source=search_app#q=Indian+navy&hl=en&prmd=imvnsu&source=univ&tbm=nws&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=DYHPT7jxDsXs6gGki5W_DA&sqi=2&ve
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Naval Interest:
THE TIGER VISITS THE DRAGON
The Tiger and the Dragon are not best friends but the
Dragon
Dragon
prefers "soft power" at the moment, and the Tiger is not a
war monger. So once in while they visit each other just to
confirm that neither is currently intending on devouring the
other. It has been six years since Indian Warships ("The
Tiger") have visited the Dragon's lair (Shanghai). On June 13,
2012 the Indian warships SHIVALIK, KARMUK, and SHAKTI
and their combined crews of about 1400 sailors started a
a goodwill tour on the Dragon's turf.
In the U.S. and British navies we call such activities "showing
the Flag". Despite the casual sounding name such fleet
activities are really very formal diplomatic missions. It takes a
mature and well developed navy to conduct such operations,
naval forces are the only armed forces that regularly engage
in diplomacy.The Indian fleet at the time of this visit was
led by Vice Admiral Anil Chopra, Chief of the Eastern
Command.The Vice Admiral met with the top officials of the
Chinese People's Liberation Army's Navy who visited the
ships.
led by Vice Admiral Anil Chopra, Chief of the Eastern
Command.The Vice Admiral met with the top officials of the
Chinese People's Liberation Army's Navy who visited the
ships.
This was the first visit to China in six years by Indian naval
vessels. Both nations have made serious efforts to
demonstrate emerging rapprochement, despite border
disputes and misgivings about each other's rise in economic
and naval power. The ships visit is considered a high point of
defense exchanges this year. Both countries have designated
this a year of "friendship and cooperation". Indian
ambassador to China S. Jaishnakar was in Shanghai
and told Indian news services that the ships visit was
planned to make maximum public impact. There was public
visitation,and Chinese school children and naval band
performances.
Our own take on the visit of the Tiger with the Dragon is
simple. If India was as weak as Vietnam or the Philippines
this wouldn't be happening. The Dragon only deals with the
strong it simply eats the weak. Earlier in the week the Indian
Navy demonstrated its friendship with the Dragon's other
powerful neighbor, the Land of the Rising Sun. The question
that is yet to be answered is, will the combined naval power
of India and Japan be used only to secure their own borders
or will these two powers combine to apply pressure on the
Dragon to also deal fairly and peacefully with its weaker
neighbors on the South China Sea? Its a matter of "face". If
China is seen as dealing fairly with its neighbors as opposed
to giving in to "American demands" it is more likely to settle
the maritime boundary issues in accordance with international
law. The Dragon is voracious with serious territorial
ambitions, but not stupid or politically unaware. It prefers soft
power, but the emphasis is always on power.
power, but the emphasis is always on power.
India and Japan are regional powers. Are they willing to use
that power in combination on behalf of the weaker nations of
the region? The United States has been the World's
policeman for too long. The image between Cop and Bully
has become blurred. If India and Japan were to be insistent
on good dragon behavior, the United States could fade into
the role of auxiliary policeman. The Dragon knows that it
would have little chance against a combination of India and
Japan and that a Japan facing China's guns would never be
alone. With the U.S. Pacific fleet entering as back up the
Dragon would be headed to the bottom of the sea. But with
the United States not being a shrill voice at the table the
Dragon can afford to be gracious with its neighbors, even if in
truth it would cheerfully eat them all if it could. The Indian
Navy is a force in the world, the world is waiting to see if it will
also become a moral force.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS CONTAIN NO GOOD NEWS.
Watch This Space Next Week For Shocking Videos Of The Dragon In Action.
China is boosting its "coastal forces" in the face of continuing disagreement over sovereignty in the "second island chain". It appears the Dragon's definition of "coastal forces" includes forces sufficient to dominate the ocean from their beach line to the high water mark on the beaches of their neighbors. The bad news is that the Dragon has a very bloody record in pushing its perceptions of its "rights" against neighboring states that are either weak or viewed as weaker than the Dragon and Friendless. Next week we will post a video that shows just how ruthless the Dragon can become in pursuing its claims that clearly run contrary to international law. We urge all of you who have been following our series "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM" To view this and the related videos next week which allows at least Vietnam and the Philippines to give you their view of the Dragon in words and images. We will warn you now that the first video in the series will show the Dragon literally machine gunning unarmed sailors in waist deep water. Its not suitable for younger viewers.
The good news , if there is any, is that the latest in Dragon "Coastal Forces" seem to be a ratcheting down from the prior use of heavily armed naval forces. The bad news is that seems
to be simply a more sophisticated form of enforcing an illegal "land grab" and the apparently "kinder gentler" forces are sufficiently deadly to repeat the machine gunning incident that we will show you next week.
China is expanding its "Maritime Surveillance Forces". These forces are a paramilitary maritime police force separate and distinct from the Chinese Navy, the agency responsible for the the incident of mass murder at sea that we will show you next week. This new force operates under the State Oceanic Administration. Its larger vessels look much like our own U.S. Coast Guard's medium and high endurance cutters and are by no means incapable of high seas operations. By 2015 this relatively new force is expected to reach a strength of 16 aircraft, 350 vessels of various sizes, and a force of 15,000 officers and sailors.
China recently used a vessel of this fleet to meet and greet an Indian Navy vessel transiting from Japanese waters towards home waters. There was nothing threatening in the "meet and greet" except an announcement that the ship were providing an unsolicited "escort", through what was clearly international waters. This new force is being operated in a fashion meant to imply effective Chinese administration over all of the contested waters of the China Sea. While the vessels are less heavily armed than naval vessels they have far superior weaponry than the fishing, commercial transport, research, other non naval craft they routinely shadow. One of their often used tactics for international commercial vessels that they know are on innocent passage is to come within sight, raise the vessel on the voice radio, and "welcome" them to "Chinese waters" along with offers of routing assistance, aids to navigation information, etc.. The idea is that they are building their case for "effective administration" of the entire area of their excessive claim. Unfortunately we fear that these tactics are reserved for nations with strong navies. Watch our video of next week to see how the Dragon deals with the powerless.
As the "Maritime Surveillance Force grows and expands operations, disputes continue and grow more bitter between China with Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam. China claims over 648,000 square miles of ocean including all of the Spratly and Parcel Islands. In the incident that we will show you next week the Chinese literally machine gunned unarmed Vietnamese sailors waist deep in waters over a shallow shoal barely 200 miles directly off the coast of Vietnam and nearly 1,000 miles from the nearest point of land in China. The "crime" of the Vietnamese sailors? They were planting Vietnamese flags on the shoal which has been considered part of Vietnamese coastal waters and islands for about two hundred years.
The Dragon's expansionist ambitions are not limited to the South China Sea. A week before this posting one of their survey ships was spotted entering Japanese waters without the required notice provided for in a bilateral agreement between Japan and China over certain disputed waters near Japan. Once contacted the Chinese vessel then gave the Japanese Coast Guard vessel an explanation of its presence, its intended course and maneuvers, and finally provided notice as it turned to leave Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters.
The Dragon doesn't seem to comprehend the difference between the territorial sea and an ocean servitude. The world recognizes only a 12 mile "territorial sea" consisting of an ocean area off of a nation's coast in which the adjacent coastal state exercises sovereignty as if the "territorial sea" was a piece of their own land mass. Beyond this 12 mile wide "territorial sea" adjacent coastal states exercise varying degrees of control over specific activities to the degree that these controls don't interfere with the international rights of "innocent passage". For example for a distance of about 12 miles beyond the "territorial sea" there is a recognized "contiguous zone" in which adjacent coastal states have enhanced customs law enforcement rights. However to exercise those rights patrol craft commanders must have some form of "probable cause" for suspecting a customs law violation. For a distance of about 200 miles out from shore many adjacent coastal states have exclusive benthic (bottom dwelling) fisheries rights, and exclusive oil and mineral exploration and development rights. This area is somewhat coincidental with the newly evolved legal construct known as the Exclusive Economic Zone where the adjacent coastal state may have other exclusive economic development rights, but again subject to the requirement that such activities do not unduly obstruct freedom of navigation.
Here is another way of looking at it. The surface of the ocean is open to navigation by anyone to about 12 miles from shore. For a nation's naval or coastal forces to interfere with any vessel navigating outside of its 12 mile territorial waters it must have probable cause that the vessel it stops or delays has violated a specific exclusive state right within a well defined and recognized zone administered by the adjacent coastal state. The relevant international conventions contain specific guidelines for special cases such as overlapping coastlines of neighboring adjacent coastal states and island states. Rarely are any of these limited exclusive economic rights extended much beyond 200 miles from shore. In the case of the dispute between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal area it is not disproportional though a bit of an exaggeration to state that China is extending its EEZ claim across a wide swath of ocean to the virtual beach line of the Philippines.
When you see how China treated Vietnam in our posting of next week you'll realize why the latest pronouncement from China appears so chilling to the Philippines. Last week when Vietnam suggested that foreign states including the United States could have a role in arbitrating the various disputes over EEZ rights in the South China Sea, China's State Department issued a stern warning that all foreigners should keep out of the dispute. We believe that the relations between China and Japan and India indicate that China follows a two pronged approach to her ocean territorial ambitions. They keep the iron fist in a silk glove when confronting real naval powers like Japan and India, and simply punch the weak "right between the running lights" at every opportunity.
Now that they have publicly warned the United States and Western powers to keep out of their obvious land grab from their neighbors the hope that western powers could possibly drive a peaceful settlement are dashed. The Dragon has set itself up for a loss of face if it ever appears to be backing down from its land grab in the face of U.S. pressure. We believe the Philippines has escaped the treatment that China administered to the Vietnamese so far because the Philippines is perceived as under the protection of the U.S. Navy. Watch our second video next in Next week's blog on the Dragon to see a Philippine comparison of their military strength to that of China. We believe that the last hope of relatively peaceful and equitable settlement between China, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and the Philippines is the exertion of strong leadership and naval presence by a united front of India and China.
China loses no face settling with these two regional powers who in combination have more military might than China wants to face down. The Dragon becomes the "Middle Kingdom" when faced with power and reverts to the astute use of soft power to further its goals. China would probably revert to soft power means to further its oceanic ambitions and scale back its time table if really confronted by a Japanese/ Indian front.
We've been here before its called containment. China is not going to become a long lasting superpower. It is a Confucian state strongly acculturated with concepts of central control. The Chinese have worked near miracles in the recent past but their micro management required to run everything will eventually cause them to collapse on themselves. They have gained a lot of ground in economic competition with the United States by painting us as "busy bodies". They base this claim on the fact that there are certain moral lines we will not generally cross in business, and certain people that we will not do business with, and certain forms of government that we hold at arms length. China's appeal is that if you do business with them they don't care how you govern. Indeed China can be quite accommodating to the most severe domestic repression by governments it trades with. By contrast while our own record is not great, such actions at least generate protest among some U.S. population segments and the media.
Domestic protest of government foreign policies is not a factor in China and there is no free press or media to protest. The Dragon simply can't go the distance as the world discovers just
how ruthless it can be, and as it expends its hard won treasure on "control" at home and a broad. Most of the world in fact does value some moral principals in business. The rest of the world simply needs to cooperate in suppressing the Dragon's appetites until it finally burns its lungs on its own fiery breath. India and Japan wake up to the Dragon on your door step, stand up for your weaker neighbors before the his divide and conquer game envelopes you, or a big power confrontation explodes on your door step. Watch this space for a close up and highly visual view of the Dragon at work next week. We'll leave that post up for a while in the hopes that those of you who have been following the story of the swimming dragon will alert your friends, fellow workers, and neighbors to the videos. We'll make next week the Week of the swimming dragon and then we'll get off this subject for while to see if other opinions and view points are offered. But next week let's look at the Dragon as seen by his weaker neighbors.
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The U.S. has declared neutrality on the issue and China has issued a warning to all non party states to keep out of the area and the issue. This declaration by the Dragon looks to us as an attempt to isolate the weaker Philippines in order to be in a
better position to dictate terms. China said last week that it
had already begun "combat ready patrols" in order to
maintain their claim. China has declared that it is
"vehemently opposed" to the Philippine law described in the
linked video above. Below is hyperlink to some English language regional news coverage of the warning.
The United States is very interested in
greater access to Philippine air bases. Such access was one
of the carrots held out by the Philippines to the United States
in exchange for the requested surveillance support. The
support requested by our ally amounts to protected "innocent
passage activity" under international law. But the Dragon, as
illustrated in the first hyper linked video of the Dragon's mass
assassination of unarmed Vietnamese sailors sometimes
shoots first and considers consequences later. Our P3C
The area appears so troublesome that it is changing our outlook on our own corporate mission. We basically review publications in
the maritime field and publish informed opinion. We are not
basically a news organization. But the situation in the South
China Sea is so rapidly changing that we think we will have to
start at least a service that organizes and describes existing
competent maritime news services and hyperlinks them to
you. Look for some of our "How far Will The Dragon Swim
series to move to a "news source section " in the near future.
We are watching the Dragon and urge you to do the same,
we will try to provide better tools for you shortly.
how ruthless it can be, and as it expends its hard won treasure on "control" at home and a broad. Most of the world in fact does value some moral principals in business. The rest of the world simply needs to cooperate in suppressing the Dragon's appetites until it finally burns its lungs on its own fiery breath. India and Japan wake up to the Dragon on your door step, stand up for your weaker neighbors before the his divide and conquer game envelopes you, or a big power confrontation explodes on your door step. Watch this space for a close up and highly visual view of the Dragon at work next week. We'll leave that post up for a while in the hopes that those of you who have been following the story of the swimming dragon will alert your friends, fellow workers, and neighbors to the videos. We'll make next week the Week of the swimming dragon and then we'll get off this subject for while to see if other opinions and view points are offered. But next week let's look at the Dragon as seen by his weaker neighbors.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM? ARE WE CONFRONTED YET?
Philippine President Benigno Aquino stated today (Monday July 2, 2012) that he may ask the United States for assistance with surveillance over flights of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
The Philippines and China had been in a stand off near the Scarborough Shoal for much of last month when an approaching storm gave both sides a safety rationale for pulling their naval, coast guard, and fisheries enforcement armed vessels from a disputed area of the collection of small islands and large rocks known as Scarborough Shoal. China claims the region which is clearly, in our opinion, in the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone. (EEZ) (The area is located about 147 miles off of the Island coastline of Philippine Luzon and is much more distant from any Chinese land mass.). The Philippines is confident enough in their claim to be willing to submit the claim to an international tribunal. But China demands a "bilateral solution". China's "bilateral solution" appears to be on the order of "Hey! I've got this gun pointed at your head and I want something you have". In our immediately previous blog on this swimming dragon we provided the below hyperlink to a video that illustrates just how fast China can turn a machine gun on unarmed sailors of nations the Dragon views as powerless or friendless.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmchttp:
The Phillipines are not powerless nor friendless but the Dragon is far more powerful as was illustrated in our last blog in the below hyperlinked Philippine produced video describing the comparative military strength of the two nations now locked in a territorial dispute.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5ZuX4TPD-k&feature=related
The Philippines have described their legal case in the previously posted (June 25, 2012 in this blog) video. The hyperlink is below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBL8DsqZ6jM&feature=fvwrel
By contrast China doesn't appear interested in presenting a
legal claim, but continues to call for what it terms a "bilateral
solution" which appears to mean that the Philippines is
to agree to whatever China says. In the middle of all this the Philippines, a long time ally of United States, has asked for American assistance with surveillance overflights of the area by P3C Orion air craft.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmchttp:
The Phillipines are not powerless nor friendless but the Dragon is far more powerful as was illustrated in our last blog in the below hyperlinked Philippine produced video describing the comparative military strength of the two nations now locked in a territorial dispute.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5ZuX4TPD-k&feature=related
The Philippines have described their legal case in the previously posted (June 25, 2012 in this blog) video. The hyperlink is below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBL8DsqZ6jM&feature=fvwrel
By contrast China doesn't appear interested in presenting a
legal claim, but continues to call for what it terms a "bilateral
solution" which appears to mean that the Philippines is
to agree to whatever China says. In the middle of all this the Philippines, a long time ally of United States, has asked for American assistance with surveillance overflights of the area by P3C Orion air craft.
The U.S. has declared neutrality on the issue and China has issued a warning to all non party states to keep out of the area and the issue. This declaration by the Dragon looks to us as an attempt to isolate the weaker Philippines in order to be in a
better position to dictate terms. China said last week that it
had already begun "combat ready patrols" in order to
maintain their claim. China has declared that it is
"vehemently opposed" to the Philippine law described in the
linked video above. Below is hyperlink to some English language regional news coverage of the warning.
The United States is very interested in
greater access to Philippine air bases. Such access was one
of the carrots held out by the Philippines to the United States
in exchange for the requested surveillance support. The
support requested by our ally amounts to protected "innocent
passage activity" under international law. But the Dragon, as
illustrated in the first hyper linked video of the Dragon's mass
assassination of unarmed Vietnamese sailors sometimes
shoots first and considers consequences later. Our P3C
Orions could wind up being the trip wire to armed dispute in
the South China Sea. The South China sea is potentially the
hottest military flash point in Asia but it appears to be under
reported by our general media. American Admiralty Books
continues to suggest to all of our readers to pay more
attention to this region and its maritime conflicts. Below is a hyperlink to short video general view of the overall subject.
the South China Sea. The South China sea is potentially the
hottest military flash point in Asia but it appears to be under
reported by our general media. American Admiralty Books
continues to suggest to all of our readers to pay more
attention to this region and its maritime conflicts. Below is a hyperlink to short video general view of the overall subject.
The area appears so troublesome that it is changing our outlook on our own corporate mission. We basically review publications in
the maritime field and publish informed opinion. We are not
basically a news organization. But the situation in the South
China Sea is so rapidly changing that we think we will have to
start at least a service that organizes and describes existing
competent maritime news services and hyperlinks them to
you. Look for some of our "How far Will The Dragon Swim
series to move to a "news source section " in the near future.
We are watching the Dragon and urge you to do the same,
we will try to provide better tools for you shortly.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Why, Mr. Dragon What Big Ears You Have:
The Dragon Hacks The Indian Navy's Computers And Makes Off With Classified Material
Dragons, like many reptiles generally speak with forked tongues. While the PLAN Dragon has been cooperating with the Japanese and Indian Navy on counter piracy patrols off of Somalia and exchanging good will visits with Japan and India the big eared reptile has been raiding the Indian naval classified material supply. Chinese hackers have broken into sensitive Indian naval computers and extracted sensitive data. The espionage occurred around Visakapatnaw, the headquarters of India's Eastern Naval Command. Planted bugs in that location captured classified information and relayed the confidential data to an IP address in China.
The Indian Eastern Naval Command operates deployments in the South China Sea and has completed four successful missions in recent years. India's first nuclear submarine the INS ARIHANT is undergoing tests at this command as we write. The extent of the data loss is still being ascertained according to official Indian reports.
Every nation gathers intelligence on any nation of interest, we certainly gather our fair share. But, as we shall see in a near future posting, China has some risk involved in stealing secrets from the Indian Navy just now. China and India are serious regional rivals, fought a short but bloody war a few decades ago, but recently have exchanged friendly naval visits as covered in one our previous postings. China is now engaged with India and Japan in a cooperative naval arrangement against pirate activity off of Somalia. The People's Liberation Army's Navy (PLAN or as we call it "the Dragon") was benefiting greatly from these two recent activities, appearing very much like a responsible law abiding global reach navy. Then they violate the official rule "gentlemen don't read other gentleman's mail".
Of course actually we all do read each other's mail at every opportunity except when being caught red handed risks loss we can't afford. Obviously the Dragon can't restrain its aggressive nature even while openly trying to mend neighborly fences. Even while the Dragon is off of Africa with its neighbors, and sometimes enemies, India and Japan trying to appear the cooperative naval neighbor it is sending its "surveillance vessels" to Vietnam again trying to enforce its claim to virtually the beach of Vietnam.
We will post more on the PLAN Dragon in the near future, keep watching this spot. If there can be only one big power in the East, we pray it will be India, a nation not bent on central control of everything, or given over to deceit as an ordinary business method. India as a nation has never invaded any other nation. India is a real democracy and has since independence exhibited plenty of good old fashioned common sense, and good will in its rise in the world.
The Dragon fears India for exactly those reasons.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
China Joins India and Japan in Patrols Off Somalia
The Chinese People's Liberation Army's Navy is no "Puff the Magic Dragon". However, the kind of face it showed the world in 1988 when it machine-gunned to death a group of unarmed Vietnamese sailors attempting to plant their national flag on an offshore island most likely well within the Vietnamese internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) , is not always the face it shows the World. (Click the following link for a video of China's attack on Vietnam) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmchttp:
Sometimes the Dragon likes to appear in kinder gentler image. Appearances can be deceiving.
China which recently completed naval good will tours with India and Japan, is closely cooperating with the Indian Navy and the Japanese Naval Self Defense Forces off of Somalia in piracy suppression. The world needs piracy suppression just now so one hopes this might be a good thing, and in and of itself, it probably is. This cooperation certainly appears to be a sign of China's willingness to work with other nations in safeguarding global trade despite mixed sentiments among the Chinese toward the nation's two major Asian rivals.
The Japanese naval force took its turn as the lead navy recently in a three nation pact that allows the synchronization of patrols. Some naval analysts believe the Chinese, Japanese, Indian naval pact against Somali piracy is a sign of growing Chinese naval confidence. These analysts view growing Chinese naval confidence as a good sign that in waters closer to home like the South China Sea where there are territorial disputes with Japan and others, and the U.S. Navy frequently operates, that the chances of a misstep that could lead to a shooting episode are lessened.
U.S. Naval War College analyst Toshi Yoshihara has stated:
"Chinese collaboration with other navies should be welcome. The hope is that such cooperation will have a positive normative effect on the civilian and military leadership." China joined the Gulf of Aden anti -piracy patrols in late 2008. China was able to do this after a 500% increase in defense spending over the prior thirteen years. This increase has allowed the PLAN to acquire the latest in surface ships, submarines, and soon an aircraft carrier. Participation in such patrols helps the PLAN learn how to operate their new and sophisticated fleet. This deployment and cooperative undertaking demonstrates China's growing global naval reach and increasing ability to prosecute traditional naval missions. This suits the Dragon's purpose.
Despite this recent cooperation the Chinese have strong anti Japanese sentiments based on Japan's brutal World War II occupation of China. Beijing still sees India as a giant rival for influence and trade. China has ocean island and EEZ disputes with Japan and a still unsettled land border dispute with India. The decision to cooperate with such rivals is seen by some analysts as a sign of growing pragmatism in China.
We respectfully disagree. Even while all these seemingly positive developments are going on, the Dragon is hacking Indian naval secrets and preparing to oppose Vietnam's recent legislative action laying claim to islands near them that China none the less claims. Last time the Dragon shot first and asked questions later. So the dragon can swim very far and plays well with others when it suits him. But he is still a dragon and has one behavior for the powerful and quite another for the weak. We again urge both India and Japan to stand up to the Dragon on behalf of, and in concert with, their weaker neighbors. The Dragon, a control freak, will eventually collapse of its own weight. India and Japan are real democracies and industrial societies with real navies with real stakes in the region. America has only one legitimate interest in the region, freedom of navigation, "innocent passage". We are not welcome and are seen as an outside power. Unfortunately with our defense commitments in the area, over aggressive behavior by the Dragon could drag us in. We can't dictate terms, we must take a back seat to India and Japan and pray for their success.
China Joins India and Japan in Patrols Off Somalia
The Chinese People's Liberation Army's Navy is no "Puff the Magic Dragon". However, the kind of face it showed the world in 1988 when it machine-gunned to death a group of unarmed Vietnamese sailors attempting to plant their national flag on an offshore island most likely well within the Vietnamese internationally recognized Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) , is not always the face it shows the World. (Click the following link for a video of China's attack on Vietnam) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmchttp:
Sometimes the Dragon likes to appear in kinder gentler image. Appearances can be deceiving.
China which recently completed naval good will tours with India and Japan, is closely cooperating with the Indian Navy and the Japanese Naval Self Defense Forces off of Somalia in piracy suppression. The world needs piracy suppression just now so one hopes this might be a good thing, and in and of itself, it probably is. This cooperation certainly appears to be a sign of China's willingness to work with other nations in safeguarding global trade despite mixed sentiments among the Chinese toward the nation's two major Asian rivals.
The Japanese naval force took its turn as the lead navy recently in a three nation pact that allows the synchronization of patrols. Some naval analysts believe the Chinese, Japanese, Indian naval pact against Somali piracy is a sign of growing Chinese naval confidence. These analysts view growing Chinese naval confidence as a good sign that in waters closer to home like the South China Sea where there are territorial disputes with Japan and others, and the U.S. Navy frequently operates, that the chances of a misstep that could lead to a shooting episode are lessened.
U.S. Naval War College analyst Toshi Yoshihara has stated:
"Chinese collaboration with other navies should be welcome. The hope is that such cooperation will have a positive normative effect on the civilian and military leadership." China joined the Gulf of Aden anti -piracy patrols in late 2008. China was able to do this after a 500% increase in defense spending over the prior thirteen years. This increase has allowed the PLAN to acquire the latest in surface ships, submarines, and soon an aircraft carrier. Participation in such patrols helps the PLAN learn how to operate their new and sophisticated fleet. This deployment and cooperative undertaking demonstrates China's growing global naval reach and increasing ability to prosecute traditional naval missions. This suits the Dragon's purpose.
Despite this recent cooperation the Chinese have strong anti Japanese sentiments based on Japan's brutal World War II occupation of China. Beijing still sees India as a giant rival for influence and trade. China has ocean island and EEZ disputes with Japan and a still unsettled land border dispute with India. The decision to cooperate with such rivals is seen by some analysts as a sign of growing pragmatism in China.
We respectfully disagree. Even while all these seemingly positive developments are going on, the Dragon is hacking Indian naval secrets and preparing to oppose Vietnam's recent legislative action laying claim to islands near them that China none the less claims. Last time the Dragon shot first and asked questions later. So the dragon can swim very far and plays well with others when it suits him. But he is still a dragon and has one behavior for the powerful and quite another for the weak. We again urge both India and Japan to stand up to the Dragon on behalf of, and in concert with, their weaker neighbors. The Dragon, a control freak, will eventually collapse of its own weight. India and Japan are real democracies and industrial societies with real navies with real stakes in the region. America has only one legitimate interest in the region, freedom of navigation, "innocent passage". We are not welcome and are seen as an outside power. Unfortunately with our defense commitments in the area, over aggressive behavior by the Dragon could drag us in. We can't dictate terms, we must take a back seat to India and Japan and pray for their success.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM ?
Pretty Far, That's Why We're Going Out To Meet Him
The Pivot towards the Pacific
According to Leon Panetta speaking at the recent Shangri- La dialogue for Asian defence ministers in Singapore, the United States now recognizes that China is bullying her neighbors in the South China Sea. Her neighbors include some of our formal allies. While the United States has no territorial claim in the area, and is officially neutral on such claims we know bullying when we see it.
What's the point in being a U.S. ally if we won't raise a finger when someone puts a gun to your head and demands something you believe is yours. We might be neutral, but we can measure. China is claiming actual sovereignty as well as exclusive economic rights over islands and shoals a thousand miles from China but sometimes less than 200 miles from the mainland of other nations. We may be a long ways off but we can see. China uses guns on unarmed people to get its way. If you don't believe it check out our previous blogs on the issue and their hyperlinks to actual video of Chinese naval units actually firing on unarmed sailors. The U.S. response is the "pivot towards the Pacific" which includes a change to our "Sea Air Battle Strategy".
According to Panetta the changes will include:
(1) By 2020 60% of America's war ships will be stationed in the Pacific, including six carrier battle groups.
(2) New acquisitions for the Pacific will include littoral zone warships able to work in close to land, fast attack submarines, a missile defense interceptor now under development with Japan, beefed up cyber and communications systems and a new long range bomber.
(3) A change in our battle strategy devised to deflect the so-called anti access and area denial capabilities being developed by China.
In short the U.S. continues to assert that we continue to maintain and improve on our ability to "kick in the door" if hostilities break out in the South China Sea.
As usual, not everyone in the U.S. is pleased,. Certain elements maintain that this is a ploy by the Navy and Air Force to gain relevancy in the defense budget. We don't buy the arguments of the critics. Anyone who really knows the history of American inter-service rivalry would recognize the Navy and Air Force as very strange bedfellows.We think we have made the case in our previous blogs that China is engaged in bullying her neighbors. So we believe in the pivot and the change in the Air Sea Battle strategy. With our friends threatened by a fire breathing dragon we favor the ability to give that swimming reptile a good "Bop on the snout" as my grandmother used to say.
But because we have the capability doesn't mean that we are obligated to administer the proverbial "bop on the snout". China's aggression is basically a violation of international conventions on the law of the sea that the United States has never signed off on, and we claim that we have no stake in these claims. Nothing, at this point compels us to come running to the rescue of Japan, or the Philippines, and certainly not India with whom we have no formal defense obligations. Vietnam, Indonesia, and other smaller nations with exclusive economic zone type claims in the south China Sea may wish that we would come in and send the big ugly beast home but we really have no dog in that race.
The key is Japan. China still has ill will towards Japan because of Japan's brutal invasion on the eve of World War II and it's brutal occupation during most of the war. China claims ownership over islands long held by Japan and has been quite aggressive in asserting that claim, though quite a bit less aggressive than they have been towards the Philippines, and way short of the mass murder they participated in forwarding their claim against Vietnam. If the Dragon starts a real act of war against Japan, where we have formal defense treaties operative, and troops, aircraft, and ships permanently stationed; it would be very hard for us not to come to the military assistance of Japan.
Whether we like it or not China's outlandish claim on the South China sea as their private lake has forced important middle powers in the region like Japan and India into a policy of containment. While our American media's eyes were focused on the Middle East, the American public barely noticed that we were being pushed into a containment mode with China. With the "pivot towards the Pacific" containment mode has begun. This can end only in one of two ways. The Dragon gets the idea that's it's claims have to be settled by a neutral international tribunal, or there will be real shooting. The Dragon's behavior can not continue. China must make its territorial and exclusive economic zone claims through international legal process. The Dragon must accept that such a process will grant it some of the areas disputed and preclude others. A legal process will never provide the Dragon with the South China sea as the beast's personal lagoon.
The entire swimming dragon drama developed with so little notice by the American general public that we feel compelled to add to our services a maritime news service. The American media understands very little of the maritime world and rarely covers the serious news stories happening out of sight of land until they emerge as major international saber rattling or outright shooting stories. But there is a fairly comprehensive , if somewhat scattered maritime media. As we build our new maritime news section we will provide you with descriptions of these various news sources, hyperlinks to everything available on line and our own analysis on certain stories. We won't be able to build this feature over night, but its on the way. Drop in and visit as we progress. Remember your visits help drive revenue to keep us afloat, even when you don't purchase books through us.
Thank you, stay tuned.
Pretty Far, That's Why We're Going Out To Meet Him
The Pivot towards the Pacific
According to Leon Panetta speaking at the recent Shangri- La dialogue for Asian defence ministers in Singapore, the United States now recognizes that China is bullying her neighbors in the South China Sea. Her neighbors include some of our formal allies. While the United States has no territorial claim in the area, and is officially neutral on such claims we know bullying when we see it.
What's the point in being a U.S. ally if we won't raise a finger when someone puts a gun to your head and demands something you believe is yours. We might be neutral, but we can measure. China is claiming actual sovereignty as well as exclusive economic rights over islands and shoals a thousand miles from China but sometimes less than 200 miles from the mainland of other nations. We may be a long ways off but we can see. China uses guns on unarmed people to get its way. If you don't believe it check out our previous blogs on the issue and their hyperlinks to actual video of Chinese naval units actually firing on unarmed sailors. The U.S. response is the "pivot towards the Pacific" which includes a change to our "Sea Air Battle Strategy".
According to Panetta the changes will include:
(1) By 2020 60% of America's war ships will be stationed in the Pacific, including six carrier battle groups.
(2) New acquisitions for the Pacific will include littoral zone warships able to work in close to land, fast attack submarines, a missile defense interceptor now under development with Japan, beefed up cyber and communications systems and a new long range bomber.
(3) A change in our battle strategy devised to deflect the so-called anti access and area denial capabilities being developed by China.
In short the U.S. continues to assert that we continue to maintain and improve on our ability to "kick in the door" if hostilities break out in the South China Sea.
As usual, not everyone in the U.S. is pleased,. Certain elements maintain that this is a ploy by the Navy and Air Force to gain relevancy in the defense budget. We don't buy the arguments of the critics. Anyone who really knows the history of American inter-service rivalry would recognize the Navy and Air Force as very strange bedfellows.We think we have made the case in our previous blogs that China is engaged in bullying her neighbors. So we believe in the pivot and the change in the Air Sea Battle strategy. With our friends threatened by a fire breathing dragon we favor the ability to give that swimming reptile a good "Bop on the snout" as my grandmother used to say.
But because we have the capability doesn't mean that we are obligated to administer the proverbial "bop on the snout". China's aggression is basically a violation of international conventions on the law of the sea that the United States has never signed off on, and we claim that we have no stake in these claims. Nothing, at this point compels us to come running to the rescue of Japan, or the Philippines, and certainly not India with whom we have no formal defense obligations. Vietnam, Indonesia, and other smaller nations with exclusive economic zone type claims in the south China Sea may wish that we would come in and send the big ugly beast home but we really have no dog in that race.
The key is Japan. China still has ill will towards Japan because of Japan's brutal invasion on the eve of World War II and it's brutal occupation during most of the war. China claims ownership over islands long held by Japan and has been quite aggressive in asserting that claim, though quite a bit less aggressive than they have been towards the Philippines, and way short of the mass murder they participated in forwarding their claim against Vietnam. If the Dragon starts a real act of war against Japan, where we have formal defense treaties operative, and troops, aircraft, and ships permanently stationed; it would be very hard for us not to come to the military assistance of Japan.
Whether we like it or not China's outlandish claim on the South China sea as their private lake has forced important middle powers in the region like Japan and India into a policy of containment. While our American media's eyes were focused on the Middle East, the American public barely noticed that we were being pushed into a containment mode with China. With the "pivot towards the Pacific" containment mode has begun. This can end only in one of two ways. The Dragon gets the idea that's it's claims have to be settled by a neutral international tribunal, or there will be real shooting. The Dragon's behavior can not continue. China must make its territorial and exclusive economic zone claims through international legal process. The Dragon must accept that such a process will grant it some of the areas disputed and preclude others. A legal process will never provide the Dragon with the South China sea as the beast's personal lagoon.
The entire swimming dragon drama developed with so little notice by the American general public that we feel compelled to add to our services a maritime news service. The American media understands very little of the maritime world and rarely covers the serious news stories happening out of sight of land until they emerge as major international saber rattling or outright shooting stories. But there is a fairly comprehensive , if somewhat scattered maritime media. As we build our new maritime news section we will provide you with descriptions of these various news sources, hyperlinks to everything available on line and our own analysis on certain stories. We won't be able to build this feature over night, but its on the way. Drop in and visit as we progress. Remember your visits help drive revenue to keep us afloat, even when you don't purchase books through us.
Thank you, stay tuned.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
China Builds Something Very Similar To A High Endurance Coast Guard Cutter
Beijing, July 28 (IANS) "China launched its largest and most advanced patrol vessel Saturday in a bid to maintain its marine sovereignty and enhance its rescue efficiency, Xinhua reported.
Launched in Wuhan, a city in Hubei province, the ship -- Haixun01 -- is the first Chinese patrol vessel to simultaneously incorporate marine inspection and rescue functions.
It can accommodate 200 people rescued at sea and will be equipped with devices to offer basic medical treatment and surgeries. It also has a helipad so airborne search and rescue missions can be carried out from it.
The vessel will carry out missions regarding maritime inspection, safety monitoring, rescue, oil spill detection and handling, said Xu Guoyi, head of the Shanghai Maritime Bureau, which will manage the ship.
It is expected to be put into service by the end of this year, Xu added.
The 5,418-tonne Haixun01 is 128.6 metre long and has a maximum sailing distance of 10,000 nautical miles (18,520 km) without refueling, said Tang Gongjie, general manager of Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Company Ltd, the builder of the ship."
__._,_.___
Analysis: China seems to distinguish between its Naval and Coast Guard functions and is
attempting to utilize armed civilian agencies as much as possible in pushing its claim to all
of the South China sea. The armed vessels of the "Ocean Surveillance Service", Shanghai Marine
Bureau, and at least one agency engaged in fisheries enforcement carry out their activities as if
sovereignty were already achieved. Obviously the Chinese intend to argue "effective control" vice
possession by conquest. But it is conquest none the less. Rather than submit to an international
arbitration the Dragon muscles out the other claimants with armed vessels obviously planning on
making claims much later before any international tribunals arguing "effective
control". Naval conquest by any other name is still naval conquest.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
_stand_at_attention_as_visitors_board_the_ship_for_a_tour.jpg)
Official US Navy Photograph
THE DRAGON LANDS IN BULGARIA
The PLAN Frigate YANTAI arrived in the Black Sea port of Varna, Bulgaria this morning (Sunday, August 5, 2012). This was the Dragon's first visit to Bulgaria. The ship was greeted by thousands of cheering people many of which were Chinese living in Bulgaria. The Bulgarian Navy Orchestra played and the local media was out in force. Rear Admiral Xia Kewei, political commissar of the 11th Chinese naval Escort Force addressed the crowd and received a warm reception. We will make more details available in our News Section as soon the regular English language media starts posting.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
AROUND THE WORLD AND MAYBE NOT FOR THE FIRST TIME
CHINESE TRAINING VESSEL ZHENGHE VISITS FRENCH POLYNESIA
The Chinese Navy Training ship ZHENGHE is visiting Papeete , French Polynesia. The ship is named for a Chinese Admiral of 600 years ago who some historians now believe may have visited the Americas about 70 years before Columbus and planted colonies and returned to China via a circumnavigation of the globe via a southern route. Author Gaven Menzies presents the evidence for Zhenghe's circumnavigation in "1421 THE YEAR THE CHINESE DISCOVERED AMERICA". A hyper link to Amazon's presentation of the book appears below.
Today's training ship ZHENGHE is on a 30,000 mile circumnavigation "good will tour". Also below is a hyper link to the Peoples Daily, the source of this news item. The voyages of ZHENGHE both ancient, and the present on going one are highly interesting. The evidence presented in Mr. Menzies' book seems solid. I've read it and can recommend it as an entertaining and informative read.
We can only hope that the spirit of Admiral ZHENGHE will eventually permeate the Peoples Liberation Army's Navy. Zhenghe used "soft power" to influence and impress, and made friends for his ill fated emperor around the world. There are so far no indications that he had to resort to violence on his circumnavigation, something that can not be said for later European navigators. Unfortunately Zhenghe returned to a very different China than he left from and to a different emperor. His ships were left to rot and the colonies he planted abandoned and absorbed into Native American cultures. There is excellent genetic evidence presented in Mr. Menzie's book that the left behind Chinese sailors were absorbed and not killed off by the natives.
Chinese naval behavior off of the coastal islands of Vietnam was the direct opposite of the behaviors exhibited by Admiral Zhenghe. Perhaps the naming of a training ship after the good admiral may be a sign that the PLAN may yet adopt the naval values and culture of the civilized world and pull back from its aggressive stance relative to its coastal neighbors. Thug/Bully tactics were definitely not what Zhenghe was all about.
. click on book cover icon to read more about the book
Source for News story: People's Daily: Click on hyper-link below
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NEWS ALERT: How Far Will The Dragon Swim?
SRI LANKAN NAVY ARRESTS 37 CHINESE FISHERMEN IN SIR LANKAN WATERS
Photo by Peter Griffin
The Sri Lankan Navy arrested 37 Chinese Fishermen aboard two vessels for illegally fishing in Sri Lankan Waters. It is not clear to our investigation as yet whether these vessels were in Sri Lankan territorial waters or in the Sri Lankan Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Additional details when available will be posted to the news service section.
OPINION: The reaction by China has been uncharacteristically restrained. We suspect the fishermen may have actually been in undisputed territorial waters. The Chinese Government, if embarrassed, has simply reaped what it has sown. The Chinese government has sent fishermen all over the South China sea escorted by armed vessels right into the EEZs and sometimes beyond of its neighbors. Chinese naval vessels have shot unarmed naval personnel of at least one other nation as we have previously presented on film. One Chinese government official has publicly advocated arming China's fishermen. Now its China asking Sri Lanka to "abide by international law, and release the fishermen as quickly as possible".
Our suggestion to China is to stop bullying your neighbors, cease asserting an unsupportable territorial claim, and negotiate in good faith all EEZ boundaries with your neighbors before any more mariners are killed or imprisoned. China's thug like behavior has created disorder in the region. Ocean economic activity depends on reliable order. Navies exist to insure such order and are renegade when they systematically disturb it. Renegade navies end up at the bottom of sea eventually.
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WHERE ARE THE OTHER DRAGONS?
A News Update:
Diving Dragon Image by Derek Domach
We reported yesterday that the Chinese Navy vessel YANTAI was visiting Bulgaria. Check our News Headline Service in our News Service page for a complete hyper-linked account with photos of the landing of the YANTAI to an enthusiastic greeting.
Of course if you followed our coverage of these vessel movements you know that three Chinese vessels entered the Mediterranean Sea together from the Suez canal. Where are the other Dragons?
The destroyer QUINGDAD and the Fleet supply ship WEISHAN are visiting Istanbul, Turkey. We''ll keep you posted. Ivan is in Syria if you missed our post on that. These are some very interesting times in the Mediterranean Sea.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Photo: Library of Congress
MAj. Gen. Wang Haiyun Proposes Three to Five Aircraft Carrier Tasks Forces for China. Read the Entire story in the Naval Diplomat. Click on the link below:
http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2012/08/13/five-flattops-fo
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NAVAL INTEREST
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Into the Territory of its Neighbors
Philippine Naval Forces West chief, Commodore Rustom Peña said Thursday that Navy ships are on standby, ready to sail to the Spratly Island's Pagasa Island to inform the Chinese fishing vessels in the area that they are within Philippine territory and that they should leave. Pagasa is occupied by Philippine civilians and garrisoned with Philippine troops. There are presently 20 Chinese vessels in the lagoon.
In a phone interview, the Commodore said the 20 Chinese fishing vessels were monitored to be around five nautical miles from Pagasa island, Philippine Territory.
“We will just investigate and then if situation warrants, we will advise them (20 Chinese fishing boats) that that’s our territory and they should leave," said Commodore Peña.
The Commodore noted that the Navy ships could not presently sail to the location of the Chinese fishing boats because of rough seas. He said the Navy ships will sail for the area as soon as the weather condition improves.
“We are monitoring them. They are not actually fishing, they are just seeking shelter…There were instances in the past where Vietnamese [vessels] also took shelter in the area because there are portions there that can [provide] cover for waves,” said Peña.
Commodore Peña added that two Chinese ships were also monitored near Mischief Reef, a Chinese-occupied area which is about 130 nautical miles from Puerto Princesa Cit, Phillipines.
Pagasa island is largest among the nine areas that are occupied by Filipino forces in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese claim the entire Spratlys.
Due to mineral and fisheries wealth , the Spratlys is being claimed in part by the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei and is being claimed in its entirety by China . — DVM, GMA News
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Here at American Admiralty Books we make no bones about being admirers of the Indian Navy and we are concerned that U.S. /Indian relations are not warmer than they are. We have interests and commerce moving through the Indian Ocean at a time when we are badly stressed to provide naval coverage in the Pacific. The administration wants to "pivot" towards the Pacific. But problems and commitments such as counter piracy patrols and protecting oil routes are likely to present real challenges to a shrinking U.S. Navy requiring more ships in the Pacific. Like us, our NATO and EU allies are a long way from home, and in economic trouble, no doubt stressed to maintain the naval presence we need in the Indian ocean.
Yet the Indian Ocean has a real navy and it belongs to a real democracy that has exhibited respect for the concept of freedom of the seas. We think it is time for all English speaking naval professionals to learn all they can about the Indian nation and its ever increasingly competent navy. We think the world can trust Indian leadership in the Indian Ocean but our leaders over the years have obviously left some doubt about our willingness to get behind this democratic regional leader. Just because India is not always willing to follow a Western lead does not mean that it can not be trusted with protecting international vessel traffic and enforcing international law in this vast ocean, where we have so much at stake and are so stressed to maintain serious naval presence. Its time to get serious about India being an important naval power, and unlike the Dragon, the Tiger's increasing, and in terms of the dragon, superior swimming ability is nothing that we have to be afraid of.
We urge our "Naval Interest" readers to join us in studying this powerful, and rapidly modernizing, and capable navy. Below are some hyperlinks to Indian Navy information, starting with their own English language web site:
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The islands in question are specifically mentioned in the treaty between the United States and Japan as a portion of the Japanese homeland that the U.S is pledged to defend. The islands are uninhabited though surrounded by fairly rich fishing grounds. There is a possibility of off shore oil deposits. While all of islands considered together are really only a few acres of sand, rock and scrub brush, they extend and enlarge Japan's ocean Exclusive Economic Zone. However China's aggressive naval actions challenging Japan's right to administer and economically exploit these islands is rapidly becoming so escalated that Japan has to seriously consider the cost benefit ratio of keeping these rocks. If they decide to keep them we have to help defend them. The cost benefit ratio to us is hardly worth it until you consider the symbolism. We must honor our defense treaty with Japan. We lose all credibility as an ally if we won't assist in repelling an aggressor invading an alley's real estate that we have recognized by treaty. All of our allies would have to question the value of any U.S. alliance. In the end if Japan decides to hang on to these islands we will have to back their claim with blood and steel. Even if Japan decides to give them up on her own, we have a problem. To give the islands up under military pressure from China is to reward aggressive behavior by a regional bully who has no compunction against aggressive behavior. The article by Chens presents a possible third way.
The Chens propose that Japan could transfer administrative control of the islands to Taiwan under Taiwan's title of "Republic of China". There is some valid historical reason for such a transfer and the rationale would be hard for Communist China to refute. In contrast to the treaty between the United States and Japan, the multi lateral 1943 Cairo Declaration of the Allies stated that Japan would be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she had seized or occupied since the beginning of the First World War in 1914. Japan would also be forced to return all territories stolen from China such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores. The PRC has consistently maintained that the Cairo Declaration of 1943 which is incorporated by reference into the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty by way of the Potsdam Proclamation should be controlling despite the specific mention of the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands in the treaty.The PRC did not participate in the 1951 treaty because the Communist party was still engaged in running the Republic of China government off shore to Taiwan. The official name of Taiwan for quite some time was "The Republic of China". Indeed the government that the Cairo Declaration referred to was the very government that took refuge on Taiwan.
The Chens ask;"Why not hold the PRC to its word and turn the administration of the islands over to the Republic of China, thus turning the tables in this latest campaign of 'legal warfare'." In their Naval Institute PROCEEDINGS article this month the two authors claim that the turn over would:
Below is a link to the Proceedings article:
Naval Interests:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
It's Certainly Improving Its Strokes for the Crossing to Taiwan
Source: Taipei Times, article by J.Michael Cole, Staff Reporter
There is a new People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ship being developed in China that has defense circles in Taiwan concerned that the mainland is building a game changer in the conflict over the sovereignty of Taiwan. Naval analysts in Taiwan believe that as early as 2014 the PLAN could have operational a major landing helicopter dock (LHD) ship that would cause a "strategic shift" in the Taiwan Strait. The design has already been officially revealed by the China Shipbuilding Industry Company, (CSIC) the nation's largest ship building organization at the Defense and Security 2012 exhibition in Bangkok last March. Naval analysts both on Taiwan and in the United States States believe the ship to be the "Type 081 LHD, a design that Jane's defense weekly confirmed in 2007 noting that the preliminary design was reportedly completed in 2006 with detailed engineering design starting soon afterward. The LHD will be capable of carrying eight helicopters on deck with hanger space for four more, or for hoover craft and can accommodate up to 1,068 marines. The ship will also be equipped with phased array radar, four short range air defense launchers, and some type of anti submarine warfare capability. The operational range of the vessel is estimated by analysts to be 7,000 nautical miles with an endurance of up 30 days at sea.
The ship design most closely resembles the French Mistral -class amphibious assault ship with some features similar to the Japanese Self defense Force Hyuga -class helicopter carrier in service since 2009. Analysts expect a launch date of 2014. Such ships are frequently employed by Western powers for humanitarian relief missions but their primary purpose is the delivery of troops from the sea. While the move might be seen as simply a counter to the nearby Japanese capability, or a move to increase China's capability to participate in distant humanitarian missions and thus increase the prestige of the Middle Kingdom, there is no doubt that this will be a first class amphibious assault ship. Analysts believe the PLAN seeks to acquire at least three of these ships. No if, buts, or maybes, possession of this ship means the dragon will be able to swim to Taiwan's shores and launch its pups ashore much more handily than ever before. How far will the dragon swim? Clearly to Taiwan and beyond, unless the dominant Chinese Army decides otherwise. Some thing happened of a similar nature in the long distant past of China. China once backed away from maritime dominance at a time when it had no rivals, and set the stage for Western Expansion in the 1400s. Chinese historians today view that as a big mistake that they hope China does not repeat. We think the safer bet is to count on a dragon who daily becomes a stronger swimmer.
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Naval Interests:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
American Admiralty Books Didn't Invent Swimming Reptiles
In the interest of full disclosure we certainly aren't members of the liberal media and we aren't Fox News either. We don't offer our readers "fair and balanced" views, we offer "expert opinion". As often as possible when experts disagree and opposing views are offered to us, we try to offer them to you. However, basically we deal in expert opinion, mostly our own in house variety.
So when we discuss China you should know that we use terms like the "Middle Kingdom" and often invoke a much used symbol of the Middle Kingdom, the dragon, because we don't think of China as a "Communist State". China, after all provides its citizens with less of a social security system than that of the supposedly capitalist United States, and far less than most modern Western nations from Canada to Finland. We think of China as "State Capitalists". Their government owned enterprises, as well as their growing private sector are run for profit.
Our mental image of the nation, when we allow it a visual element, is usually related to the "Middle Kingdom". When China historically referred to itself as the "Middle Kingdom" it saw itself as the Center of the Universe, not as sort of "middle power". China had a powerful Merchant Marine and sought to draw all of the Pacific Basin onto itself through what we would call today mercantile or "soft" power.
The Dragon was a powerful symbol of China back in the era of the "Middle Kingdom" and is strongly connected with the nation to this day. So when we began to analyze Chinese maritime events we seemed to naturally gravitate to the title "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". The title seemed to just come out of the ether. We decided to do a little research.
We soon discovered that we aren't the first to associate the image of the dragon with China's People's Liberation, Army Navy (PLAN). Way back in 1969 we found a China Brief article that phased the concept a little less certainly by the title of "Can the Dragon Swim?". That was the appropriate question back in 1969 but as time marched on it became obvious that the dragon, indeed can swim. A number of analysts writing in typically obscure political and naval journals began to ask the question in the form of "How Far Will The Dragon Swim". Finally in the Naval Institute's March 1999 PROCEEDINGS, then Lieutenant Commander Wayne R. Hugar writing in Vol. 125-51 on pages 48-51 titled his analytical article on the PLAN, "HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?"
Our search also revealed that the words "how far will the dragon swim" appear in numerous pet magazines in association with the care (including bathing instructions) of various large lizards, both as part of articles and as article titles. So basically we think reducing the question of what are the intentions of China relative to its obvious continuing naval development; can be articulated with the more colorful expression "How Far will The Dragon Swim?" Since we are fairly confident that the words are in the public domain we will continue to use them as a sort of shorthand to alert our readers that an article is going to discuss PLAN developments, or issues related to rival regional naval powers; and as a short hand reminder that far more expert discussions are available through both the Naval Institute's Proceedings and their book titles, the most recent of which on the PLAN we first described in our May 21, 2012 article and we are continuing to describe in our "Naval Interest Section".
We are happy to acknowledge Lcdr Hugar's 1999 article as the most prominent early use of the term in this context. We hope by our continuing to use the term and linking our readers as we did in our blog of May 21, 2012 to the Naval Institute that we will help the interested reader who is probably not a big consumer of obscure political journals and Department of State white papers to find more ink on the subject by informed naval writers. We can think of three places to find such; The Naval Institute, the Naval Intelligence Professionals QUARTERLY,which often runs related articles under the banner "China Watch" and here among the blogs and "Naval Interest" pages of American Admiralty Books.We also invite our readers to join in the discussion by using our "Comments" section at the end of this and every blog.
No we didn't invent the swimming reptile concept, but we think the swimming dragon is worth careful observation.To help our aquatic dragon watchers here again is a hyperlink to the U.S. Naval Institute; and for the first time in our pages, a hyperlink to the Naval Intelligence Professionals (association).
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Naval Interests:
How far Will The Dragon Swim?
THE DRAGON AND THE TIGER
The Indian Navy's New Chief Designate and the Tiger's Growing Fleet
The official national animal of India and an important national symbol is the Royal Bengal Tiger. We use the tiger in our discussions as a symbol for India. Cats aren't known for their swimming ability but tigers and jaguars have been filmed swimming. India is one hell of a powerful and skilled swimming tiger. They don't call it the Indian Ocean for nothing and India intends to keep it that way, whether the dragon objects or not. While the Tiger respects the freedom of the seas, it is known to be determined that no dragon, eagle, or imperial lion develop the regional naval power to dispute its rule over the Indian waves.
The Indian Navy has been competently operating an aircraft carrier for years, the INS VIRAAT; while the dragon is still working on their first attempt at operating a carrier. The dragon has ventured into the Tiger's sea with various naval agreements with the Tiger's troublesome neighbor Pakistan. The Tiger respects the freedom of the seas and has not attacked the dragon, but the dragon must be aware of the formidable and growing teeth of the Tiger. At a time when the United States is attempting to operate a capable global naval presence on considerably less than 300 warships, India is preparing a one ocean Navy of at least 150 war ships. The Indian Maritime Capability Perspective Plan 2012-2027 pegs the number of major war ships required as at least 150. India is not pipe dreaming on this; 44 new ships are on order along with six submarines. Contracts for another 45 warships including 6 new submarines and 7 stealth frigates are just a little deeper in the Indian naval acquisition system pipeline. As the Dragon grows the Tiger moves to be capable, competent, and up to date.
New Deli announced today (June 5, 2012) that Vice Admiral D.K. Joshi has been designated as the next Chief of Naval Operations for the Indian Navy after the August retirement of Admiral Nirmal Verma. Vice Admiral Joshi is a specialists in anti submarine warfare and a former commanding officer of guided missile corvetts, destroyers, and India's aircraft carrier INS VIRAAT. A more complete biography and more details of the transfer of power are available at the Times of India via the hyperlink below.
The United States has many interests in the Indian Ocean area as does Great Britain. The British provide us with a naval base in the middle of the Indian Ocean at an Island cluster called Diego Garcia. Our Indian Ocean presence is no where near large or powerful enough to to give real pause to a determined dragon without re-enforcement. Our Indian Ocean naval presence not likely to grow appreciably in the near future. The real guardian of the Indian Ocean is the Tiger, who while not unfriendly to the Eagle; does on occasion buy warships and weapons from the Bear. The bear you may remember a few years ago, was having a virtual fire sale on military gear. India is the world's largest democracy, and the permanent naval power in the Indian Ocean. English is widely spoken, why our relations are sometimes at arms length is a complex tale. Again, one of the places where this tale has been explored in detail is in the pages of the U.S. Naval Institute's PROCEEDINGS. http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings
Don't forget to check our "Naval Interest" section periodically for books on the Tiger's naval activity and the rivalry between the Tiger and the Dragon. Our "Naval Interest"section is our largest and fastest growing section in terms of book titles posted. The section however is not just for naval professionals. Anyone interested in history or global politics will find a lot of interest there. Can naval writers ever really capture the imagination and attention of the general public. Well, you do know who Tom Clancy is don't you? His first smash hit THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER was published by the U.S. Naval Institute Press. So even if you are a "dyed in the wool" civilian, go ahead browse our Naval Interest section.
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Naval Interest:
THE DRAGON AND THE TIGER
Let Us Introduce You to the Tiger
China, we refer to as "the Dragon" in our series on the People's Liberation Army Navy PLAN. The PLAN is one of the premier emerging navies of the world and is clearly slated for much more development by China. The Dragon has exhibited some interests in the Indian Ocean where lurks the "Tiger" our term for the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy is a fully emerged navy that has many years of successful aircraft carrier operations under its belt and is in possession of steady growth and modernization plans. The Indian Navy is making the term "Indian Ocean" more a reality every day. More over, this is the navy of the world's largest democracy.
Here at American Admiralty Books we make no bones about being admirers of the Indian Navy and we are concerned that U.S. /Indian relations are not warmer than they are. We have interests and commerce moving through the Indian Ocean at a time when we are badly stressed to provide naval coverage in the Pacific. The administration wants to "pivot" towards the Pacific. But problems and commitments such as counter piracy patrols and protecting oil routes are likely to present real challenges to a shrinking U.S. Navy requiring more ships in the Pacific. Like us, our NATO and EU allies are a long way from home, and in economic trouble, no doubt stressed to maintain the naval presence we need in the Indian ocean.
Yet the Indian Ocean has a real navy and it belongs to a real democracy that has exhibited respect for the concept of freedom of the seas. We think it is time for all English speaking naval professionals to learn all they can about the Indian nation and its ever increasingly competent navy. We think the world can trust Indian leadership in the Indian Ocean but our leaders over the years have obviously left some doubt about our willingness to get behind this democratic regional leader. Just because India is not always willing to follow a Western lead does not mean that it can not be trusted with protecting international vessel traffic and enforcing international law in this vast ocean, where we have so much at stake and are so stressed to maintain serious naval presence. Its time to get serious about India being an important naval power, and unlike the Dragon, the Tiger's increasing, and in terms of the dragon, superior swimming ability is nothing that we have to be afraid of.
We urge our "Naval Interest" readers to join us in studying this powerful, and rapidly modernizing, and capable navy. Below are some hyperlinks to Indian Navy information, starting with their own English language web site:
Here is a general description and history:
Here are some recent news items on the Indian Navy:https://www.google.com/webhp?source=search_app#q=Indian+navy&hl=en&prmd=imvnsu&source=univ&tbm=nws&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=DYHPT7jxDsXs6gGki5W_DA&sqi=2&ve
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Naval Interest:
How Far Will The Dragon Swim?
THE TIGER VISITS THE LAND OF RISING SUN:Indian and Japanese Naval Units Exercised Together Recently.
The "Tiger" (Indian Navy) transited out of the Indian Ocean, passed the Dragon's lair (Chinese Coast) and entered the waters of the "Land of the Rising Sun" during the week that started June 6, 2012. India and Japan both have concerns over a certain swimming dragon that lives between them. Supposedly, this concern had little to do with their recent joint naval exercise which focused on search and rescue operations. The Dragon, no doubt, saw things differently. Indian and Japanese naval forces have exercised together before, but as part of international exercises that involved additional navies. This time India and Japan got together on their own with no third party broker.
Four vessels of the Indian Navy participated in the exercise; a destroyer a supply ship, a frigate, and a corvette. The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) provided numerous naval aircraft and two destroyers. The exercise was the result of a visit to Japan last year by Indian defense minister A K Anthony. Later a number of Japanese naval vessels will travel to Indian naval facilities.and take part in another military exercise.
The names of the participating Japanese naval vessels were not available to us at press time. We also have relatively little information right now on the Indian exercise participants. We do have the following however, The Indian ships included a SHIVALIK class frigate, a KASHIN class guided destroyer, the INS RANA was probably involved since she was in the immediate area having just finished a visit and exercise with South Korea.
While the exercise was low key and focused on search and rescue the dragon could not help but notice the following points which we noticed. First this exercise was strictly bilateral, there was no third party broker, most notably the United States. This may have been an exercise based on search and rescue operations but these weren't salvage tugs participating, but powerful warships of both nations. Navies that "cooperate" in missions like search and rescue, and humanitarian operations have a much easier time in cooperating in combat operations if the need arises. Extensive "cooperation" can lead to near virtual "interoperability" comparable to the NATO fleet. Clearly the Tiger and the Land of the Rising Sun are intent on keeping their sovereignty and territory intact, with or without a "big brother" in the form of a United States naval commitment.
While India and the United States continue to hold each other at arms distance over a variety of issues, it is virtually inconceivable that the United States would not come to the military defense of Japan. The United States has committed to increasing its Pacific Fleet even while absorbing budget cuts. In the face of the independent resolve of Japan and India alone, the dragon my find long distance swimming not as attractive as it once thought. The challenge to the United States is to find a way to resolve differences with India, the world's largest democracy, and present a united front against all of the Dragon's overseas territorial ambitions that run counter to traditional international law. Our thought is that such a united front need not have an American face.
At stake are the legitimate territorial sea and exclusive economic zone rights of our stalwart but weak ally the Philippines, and China's weaker neighbors like Vietnam, as well as our use of important trade routes. India, with its relatively non aligned credentials, could be an honest broker in forums where these maritime boundary disputes are eventually determined. By contrast the United States and its closest allies in the area would present a "face" issue for the Chinese leadership in these matters. India and Japan are the most powerful states directly affected by the Dragon's maritime territorial ambitions. The United States has several horses in this race but no territory. One has to wonder if we wouldn't be well advised to let Japan and India take the lead in both political demands and naval presence while we insure that the Dragon understands that no matter how big the swimming dragon grows, the U.S. Pacific fleet will put its throw weight behind Japan and India if push comes to shove. However, out of respect for the greater immediate stake that India and Japan have in the good behavior of the swimming dragon, and acknowledgement of the fact that we have no territory at risk; we are content for the time being to simply back the hand of these two strong regional powers.
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NAVAL INTEREST:
THE TIGER IS FOLLOWING THE DRAGON INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA.
Four Indian Warships Have Entered The Mediterranean Sea And Are Presently Visiting Israel.
Four Indian Warships are now moored in Haifa, Northern Israel. The INS MUMBAI, TRISHUG, GOMTI, and ADITYA led by Rear Admiral A R Karue are presently visiting Israel as part of a Mediterranean good will tour. This news comes as reports are reaching us that the Chinese warships that entered the Mediterranean may presently be in the Black Sea ( possible update later today). This will be a four day visit in Israel, which has had diplomatic relations with India for twenty years. The purpose of the visit is to strengthen service to service ties between the two Navies and to pay respects to the memories of Indian soldiers who fought, died and were buried in Haifa after they helped allied forces liberate the city from the Nazi aligned forces in WW II. The municipality of Haifa recently decided to incorporate the valiant efforts of the Indians into their local school curricula as part of their history texts.
SOURCES: AAIS Corespondents, and Times of India
OPINION: We make no bones about it we are Tiger fans, both LSU football and the Indian Navy. The dragon is behaving like a thug state in the China Sea, while projecting power around the globe. We have already published footage of Chinese PLAN ships killing unarmed Vietnamese sailors while trying to take what is clearly Vietnamese territory. The Chinese have of late perverted another concept near and dear to those of us here. In response to real naval response to their bullying, defended against by Japan, India, and now the Philippines China has begun to pervert the Coast Guard functions. Many nations make clear distinctions between their naval forces and Coast Guard forces with Coast Guard forces clearly being linked with law enforcement duties within their established and recognized national waters. Coast Guard forces have long been associated with administrative control of established territory and disassociated with aggressive conquest. China is fielding more and better armed "Ocean Surveillance Service" ships and more armed "Fisheries Enforcement Service" ships while talking about arming their fishermen. Clearly they are perverting the concept of Coast Guard forces to improve their chances of making the "effective administration argument" for more territory if the situation is forced to a bargaining table.
The PLAN ("The Dragon") is an instrument of blunt force for a thug state. The INS ("The Tiger") is a moral force upon the seas. India is a real democracy and a peaceful people ascending to a position of power while sharing a border with a thug state that is also an economic rival. We make no bones about it, we would like to see U.S. investment leave China for India where it would be safer and working for a democracy with a sense of ethics and morality. We would like to see closer ties between the U.S. Navy and the INS but not as some sort of "Big Brother". Indeed we could do worse than following the INS lead in the Indian Ocean in many instances, and agreeing to disagree in others. India is most effective in the region with a reputation for independence.
As a democracy, free market, and moral people even when we disagree, their positions are not aimed at causing instability or expanding territory. We look to the rise of the INS and Japan's MSDF as the true counter weight to the aggression of the Chinese Navy. The situation is delicate, our own Pacific Fleet should be a quiet back up to the efforts of Japan and India to bring the voice of reason to the position of dominance in the ocean policies of the region. The Dragon is big on "Face", They would rather threaten Honolulu with nuclear annihilation than appear to be "caving in" to U.S. demands. By contrast, if their efforts at bullying their way into territorial acquisition fail going to the bargaining table with other regional powers can be sold to the populace as simply a reasonable and diplomatic thing to do. The Dragon can point to such an outcome as "proof" of its peaceful intent, adherence to international law, and status as a law abiding member of the international community.That of course is a "crock", but its better than having to send the PLAN to the bottom of the sea which if they continue to miscalculate could happen, but not without terrible costs to all parties. So far India, Japan, and the Philippines have played the game the Dragon has imposed well. We need to stay well in the background simply making it clear that in a shoot out we will come to the aid of our two longtime allies. The Tiger is the non aligned wild card, but a wild card of moral caliber and considerable naval throw weight. The Dragon is going to have to be very careful with the Tiger on its tail. Lets hope the Tiger is as wise as it has appeared to be of late.
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HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM ?
The Senkaku Islands Controversy
One of my favorite paintings of all times is "Alabama Sinking Seen From Kearsarge" . The viewer sees the Confederate commerce raider ALABAMA sinking in the distance over the shoulder of a Union Navy gunner. The brawny gunner is holding a ram rod, cease fire has been called. The union ship Kearsarge has won, the Alabama is sinking.
US Navy Poster photographed in 1970 depicting Seaman Joachim Pease who won the Congressional Medal of Honor in the ship duel between the CSS ALABAMA and the USS KEARSARGE off of Cherbourg, France June 19, 1864.
But there is no joy in the gunner's face or demeanor. His face is sad and his head hangs down a bit and his shoulders are slumped. No high fives, no cheers. The truth is that sailors hate destroying ships which they often see as things of beauty and experience as homes away from home, and they hate killing other sailors even more. The sea can be a deadly enough enemy all by its self. The illustration above isn't the painting I'm discussing, we couldn't find a version in the Public Domain. However note again the lack of joy depicted in this other art work commemorating the Union victory that sunk the ALABAMA, by all accounts a beautiful ship that if it had survived the war might have served for decades carrying merchant cargo.
CSS ALABAMA from painting owned by Naval Historical Center
Every sailor knows in war time that but for the decrees of distant governments, the very sailors they are locked in mortal combat with today could be the ones coming to the rescue in a different time when they lost a battle with the sea. Sailors take no joy in destroying ships and killing other sailors. We take no joy in seeing other sailors like those of the Chinese Navy (PLAN) being forced into situations where they may become involved in shooting, sinking, and killing in a campaign triggered by foolishly aggressive territorial expansion. On the same hand all Chinese claims are not utterly without merit and may deserve a hearing.
The Senkaku Islands may be a case in point. These are in more northern waters than the other disputes between China and the Philippines and Vietnam.
The Japanese government would like to claim the islands in order to use them as a base for claiming a larger Exclusive Economic Zone but appears willing to argue the claim in peaceful forums and even to lose if defeated in a truly neutral forum
operated in accordance with international law. But strong nationalists groups in Japan are clouding the water with attempts to purchase the islands from their present private owner, landings, and incendiary speeches and political gestures.
The China Sea holds oil, minerals, and protein. International law has established the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as the legal system by which adjacent coastal states may provide good stewardship over these resources far out to sea. Through the adjacent coastal state's leasing of mineral rights, management of benthic fisheries, and enforcement of international migrant fisheries treaties; order is established far out to sea without interfering with traditional rights of all nations of transit and transport. The establishment of an EEZ
not tantamount to extending a nation's "territorial sea", it is a much more limited right. Right now China is acting like it can't understand that. Japan does understand but is being pushed by internal nationalists forces to take a more aggressive stand in the case of the SENKAKUs than what is really necessary. Let us hope that both sides don't miscalculate. Below is a hyperlink to more information about this important conflict within a conflict. For sailors, we are certainly living the ancient Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times". While all eyes apparently are on the Middle East the Dragon, the Tiger, and the Rising Sun may be determining war and peace for the future out of site of land and out of the media eye. Watch here with us.
Click on the hyper-link below for more informaation
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11/24/2012
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM?
Today we bring you a link to a great background essay on China's sea expansion by the think tank Stratfor. As we have been following the growth and increasing aggressiveness of the Chinese Navy in our "How Far Will The Dragon Swim" series of opinion blogs and news service features we've provided little background beyond the 1980s. Our coverage in the series opened with the murderous attack of the Chinese Navy on Vietnamese naval personnel in waters very close to Vietnam and very far from China. The linked Stratfor article takes us back to ancient times and brings us forward to the present and helps explain the stubborn apparent illogical Chinese position and why it is so difficult for the Chinese national leadership to abandon this unproductive policy. The first paragraph appears below, to read the full article click on the link and that will take you to the Stratfor website and the full article.
The Paradox of China's Naval Strategy
Over the past decade, the South China Sea has become one of the most volatile flashpoints in East Asia. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan each assert sovereignty over part or all of the sea, and these overlapping claims have led to diplomatic and even military standoffs in recent years.
Because the sea hosts numerous island chains, is rich in mineral and energy resources and has nearly a third of the world's maritime shipping pass through its waters, its strategic value to these countries is obvious. For China, however, control over the South China Sea is more than just a practical matter and goes to the center of Beijing's foreign policy dilemma: how to assert its historical maritime claims while maintaining the nonconfrontational foreign policy established by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1980.
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12/11/2012 How Far will The Dragon Swim, The Taiwan Solution
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM? THE POTENTIAL FOR A TAIWAN FOCUSED SOLUTION TO THE SENKAKU/DIAOYU TAI DISPUTE BETWEEN CHINA, JAPAN, AND TAIWAN
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| How Far Will The Dragon Swim? S Series of Essays On China's Naval Activities |
No matter what the naval issue, eventually all things naval in character end up being discussed in the pages of the Naval Institute's PROCEEDINGS. We've been following the Senkaku/Diaoyu Tai dispute for months. Finally in the December 2012 issue of the Naval Institute's POCEEDINGS on page 10 David D. Chen and Cary C. Chen propose something completely new, that could conceivably work. It probably sounds great to Taiwan and China, and if adopted would get the U.S. off the hook. The leadership in Japan might see it as a win/win but probably not the general populace.
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| Japanese Coast Guard Cutter , so far all sides in the dispute have deployed only coast guard type forces and avoided navy to navy confrontation. The most hazardous incident so far has been a Taiwan /Japan Coast Guard on Coast Guard water cannon fight inside Japan's recognized territorial waters. But as we describe in our text , the incident puts a dampener on the cure proposed in the Naval Institute Article. |
The islands in question are specifically mentioned in the treaty between the United States and Japan as a portion of the Japanese homeland that the U.S is pledged to defend. The islands are uninhabited though surrounded by fairly rich fishing grounds. There is a possibility of off shore oil deposits. While all of islands considered together are really only a few acres of sand, rock and scrub brush, they extend and enlarge Japan's ocean Exclusive Economic Zone. However China's aggressive naval actions challenging Japan's right to administer and economically exploit these islands is rapidly becoming so escalated that Japan has to seriously consider the cost benefit ratio of keeping these rocks. If they decide to keep them we have to help defend them. The cost benefit ratio to us is hardly worth it until you consider the symbolism. We must honor our defense treaty with Japan. We lose all credibility as an ally if we won't assist in repelling an aggressor invading an alley's real estate that we have recognized by treaty. All of our allies would have to question the value of any U.S. alliance. In the end if Japan decides to hang on to these islands we will have to back their claim with blood and steel. Even if Japan decides to give them up on her own, we have a problem. To give the islands up under military pressure from China is to reward aggressive behavior by a regional bully who has no compunction against aggressive behavior. The article by Chens presents a possible third way.
The Chens propose that Japan could transfer administrative control of the islands to Taiwan under Taiwan's title of "Republic of China". There is some valid historical reason for such a transfer and the rationale would be hard for Communist China to refute. In contrast to the treaty between the United States and Japan, the multi lateral 1943 Cairo Declaration of the Allies stated that Japan would be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she had seized or occupied since the beginning of the First World War in 1914. Japan would also be forced to return all territories stolen from China such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores. The PRC has consistently maintained that the Cairo Declaration of 1943 which is incorporated by reference into the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty by way of the Potsdam Proclamation should be controlling despite the specific mention of the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands in the treaty.The PRC did not participate in the 1951 treaty because the Communist party was still engaged in running the Republic of China government off shore to Taiwan. The official name of Taiwan for quite some time was "The Republic of China". Indeed the government that the Cairo Declaration referred to was the very government that took refuge on Taiwan.
The Chens ask;"Why not hold the PRC to its word and turn the administration of the islands over to the Republic of China, thus turning the tables in this latest campaign of 'legal warfare'." In their Naval Institute PROCEEDINGS article this month the two authors claim that the turn over would:
- 'Reward China and Taiwan for recent stabilization of cross - strait ties and improve economic relations, and place the two sides in common cause over a security/territory issue.
- Remove a perennial crisis point from the first island chain and the potential for its recurring destabilizing impact on Sino-Japanese relations.
- Keep the islands within the U.S. alliance structure and security umbrella."
So far we have to admit that the PROCEEDINGS article makes some valid points. But this next quote of the authors makes us believe that at the time their article was drafted that they were unaware of certain news stories that we carried in the News Section that just didn't draw any serious media attention in the United States.
"Taiwan, Japan, and the United States are all on the same side of the issue. All want stability in the Western Pacific and to curtail Chinese revanchist tendencies. Taiwan could easily be convinced to go along with such a scheme"
The problem with this idea is believing that Taiwan wants stability in the Western Pacific when it recently acted worse than China. A day after China faked a fishing vessel invasion of Japan's EEZ around the islands but actually stopped short of Japan's territorial waters, and then departed the area Taiwan showed up on scene. A Taiwan Coast Guard vessel escorted a number of their fishing vessels right into Japanese waters where they refused to leave eventually forcing a Japanese Coast Guard vessel to engage them with water cannon. As soon as the Japanese Coast Guard turned their water cannon on to oust the invading fishermen, the Taiwan Coast Guard vessel crossed into Japanese territorial waters and opened up on the Japanese Coast Guard with their water cannon, providing a "covering fire" of sorts until their fishing vessels departed the area. Then the Taiwanese Coast Guard vessel broke off contact and departed. So the Taiwanese now hold the record for most direct, violent, and obnoxious insult to Japan's sovereignty. Just as the Japanese people will resist giving the islands to Red China due to the appearance of rewarding illegal and improper behavior, the fact is that the seemingly humorous "Great Coast Guard water gun fight" of Senkaku / Diaoyu makes Taiwan even more unacceptable for a "gift" of the islands. The existing strong nationalist sentiment in Japan that wants to hold on to the islands at all costs is acutely aware that the Japanese government just paid the private Japanese owners a fortune so that the decision will be the states' only.
The only way we see the Taiwan focused solution working now would be if all sides stood down for at least a year and the bargaining goes indoors. Taiwan should offer to pay Japan a significant sum, not for the islands but for "past administration and security expenses"or whatever label they want to put on it. The idea of the Chens as described in the PROCEEDINGS is insightful and unique but it probably was drafted before Taiwan decided to act like a reckless adolescent. The "Great Water Gun Fight" as laughable as it seems and as un-newsworthy as it was treated changes everything.
To the Japanese nationalists it was the ultimate insult to the nation's sovereignty Taiwan crossed a line and only time and some sign of recompense can ever make the Taiwan focused solution work.
To the Japanese nationalists it was the ultimate insult to the nation's sovereignty Taiwan crossed a line and only time and some sign of recompense can ever make the Taiwan focused solution work.
Below is a link to the Proceedings article:
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The Chens propose that Japan could transfer administrative control of the islands to Taiwan under Taiwan's title of "Republic of China". There is some valid historical reason for such a transfer and the rationale would be hard for Communist China to refute. In contrast to the treaty between the United States and Japan, the multi lateral 1943 Cairo Declaration of the Allies stated that Japan would be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she had seized or occupied since the beginning of the First World War in 1914. Japan would also be forced to return all territories stolen from China such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores. The PRC has consistently maintained that the Cairo Declaration of 1943 which is incorporated by reference into the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty by way of the Potsdam Proclamation should be controlling despite the specific mention of the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands in the treaty.The PRC did not participate in the 1951 treaty because the Communist party was still engaged in running the Republic of China government off shore to Taiwan. The official name of Taiwan for quite some time was "The Republic of China". Indeed the government that the Cairo Declaration referred to was the very government that took refuge on Taiwan.
The Chens ask;"Why not hold the PRC to its word and turn the administration of the islands over to the Republic of China...?
War with China reverses our present economic position relative to China. We at present are the debtor nation. Certainly one of our first return shots if attacked would be cancellation of our debt, virtually bankrupting China. We doubt that it would have any negative effects on our global credit rating as no one expects a nation at war to subsidize the war efforts of their enemy. Many individual U.S.investors in China would lose their investments but many jobs might return to the United States as we would be forced to replace many products presently made in China with American capital and know how. If the conflict can be kept conventional, Chinese maritime commerce and infrastructure would be destroyed. Our own damages while extensive would be regional in nature. If China escalated to nuclear they might get in a couple of hits on Hawaii and the West Coast, we would lose millions of people and suffer trillions in damage. China however would be reduced to a glow in the dark parking lot. Why any nation led by sane people would play these games of brinkmanship is unfathomable unless you factor in the low level of journalistic interest in this deadly game due to its at sea location. This is a game played in near darkness. Since China controls its own media only wide spread coverage of the strange and irresponsible behavior by the media in the outside world can alert people and the rank and file communist party members of the danger the leadership is putting them in.
RELATED ARTICLES:
HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON SWIM? CHINA TURNS UP THE HEAT ON JAPAN
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| PRC SURVEILLANCE PLANE OVER JAPANESE WATERS PHOTO BY JAPANESE COAST GUARD |
Link to story in THE ECONOMIC TIMES: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/japan-scrambles-fighter-jets-as-chinese-plane-flies-over-disputed-isles/articleshow/17596731.cms
OPINION:
We've been following the Senkaku/Diaoyu Tai dispute for months. Finally in the December 2012 issue of the Naval Institute's POCEEDINGS on page 10 David D. Chen and Cary C. Chen proposed something completely new, that could conceivably work. We covered their proposal in our posting of December 11, 2012. But at that time we noted that for it to work Taiwan would have to behave better since they were the first to actually invade Japan's territorial sea and engage an actual Japanese Coast Guard cutter with water cannon. We suggested that if the "Taiwan Solution" proposed by the Chens were to work there had to be a cooling off period.
China's naval intelligence establishment either didn't read the Naval Institute's PROCEDINGS this month or the civilian leadership chose to ignore the information. China is acting more like a thug state all of the time and in the days since the publication of the Institute's article have actually been increasing pressure on Japan.
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| Japanese Coast Guard Cutter , so far all sides in the dispute have deployed only coast guard type forces and avoided navy to navy confrontation. The most hazardous incident so far has been a Taiwan /Japan Coast Guard on Coast Guard water cannon fight inside Japan's recognized territorial waters. But as we describe in our text , the incident puts a dampener on the cure proposed in the Naval Institute Article. |
When we first ran the picture above the situation was as described by in the caption. The latest invasion of Japan's sovereign air space was not by PRC fighter jets but the invasive flight forced Japan to scramble real military intercept fighters. China knew or should have known how Japan would have been forced to respond. This latest action was provocative and pure brinkmanship. But this latest invasive overflight is not the only example of brinkmanship since the Naval Institute's article proposing the "Taiwan Solution" came out. The PRC has been running real war ships close to the disputed Islands, outside of the Japanese 12 mile territorial sea but within their Exclusive Economic Zone.
The aggressive game that China is playing is especially dangerous relative to the United States. The islands in question are specifically mentioned in the treaty between the United States and Japan as a portion of the Japanese homeland that the U.S is pledged to defend. The islands are uninhabited though surrounded by fairly rich fishing grounds. There is a possibility of off shore oil deposits. While all of the islands considered together are really only a few acres of sand, rock and scrub brush, they extend and enlarge Japan's ocean Exclusive Economic Zone. However China's aggressive naval actions challenging Japan's right to administer and economically exploit these islands is rapidly becoming so escalated that Japan has to seriously consider the cost benefit ratio of keeping these rocks. If they decide to keep them we have to help defend them. The cost benefit ratio to us is hardly worth it until you consider the symbolism. We must honor our defense treaty with Japan. We lose all credibility as an ally if we won't assist in repelling an aggressor invading an alley's real estate that we have recognized by treaty. All of our allies would have to question the value of any U.S. alliance. In the end if Japan decides to hang on to these islands we will have to back their claim with blood and steel. Even if Japan decides to give them up on her own, we have a problem. To give the islands up under military pressure from China is to reward aggressive behavior by a regional bully who has no compunction against aggressive behavior. The article by Chens presents a possible third way.
The aggressive game that China is playing is especially dangerous relative to the United States. The islands in question are specifically mentioned in the treaty between the United States and Japan as a portion of the Japanese homeland that the U.S is pledged to defend. The islands are uninhabited though surrounded by fairly rich fishing grounds. There is a possibility of off shore oil deposits. While all of the islands considered together are really only a few acres of sand, rock and scrub brush, they extend and enlarge Japan's ocean Exclusive Economic Zone. However China's aggressive naval actions challenging Japan's right to administer and economically exploit these islands is rapidly becoming so escalated that Japan has to seriously consider the cost benefit ratio of keeping these rocks. If they decide to keep them we have to help defend them. The cost benefit ratio to us is hardly worth it until you consider the symbolism. We must honor our defense treaty with Japan. We lose all credibility as an ally if we won't assist in repelling an aggressor invading an alley's real estate that we have recognized by treaty. All of our allies would have to question the value of any U.S. alliance. In the end if Japan decides to hang on to these islands we will have to back their claim with blood and steel. Even if Japan decides to give them up on her own, we have a problem. To give the islands up under military pressure from China is to reward aggressive behavior by a regional bully who has no compunction against aggressive behavior. The article by Chens presents a possible third way.
The Chens propose that Japan could transfer administrative control of the islands to Taiwan under Taiwan's title of "Republic of China". There is some valid historical reason for such a transfer and the rationale would be hard for Communist China to refute. In contrast to the treaty between the United States and Japan, the multi lateral 1943 Cairo Declaration of the Allies stated that Japan would be stripped of all the islands in the Pacific which she had seized or occupied since the beginning of the First World War in 1914. Japan would also be forced to return all territories stolen from China such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores. The PRC has consistently maintained that the Cairo Declaration of 1943 which is incorporated by reference into the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty by way of the Potsdam Proclamation should be controlling despite the specific mention of the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands in the treaty.The PRC did not participate in the 1951 treaty because the Communist party was still engaged in running the Republic of China government off shore to Taiwan. The official name of Taiwan for quite some time was "The Republic of China". Indeed the government that the Cairo Declaration referred to was the very government that took refuge on Taiwan.
The Chens ask;"Why not hold the PRC to its word and turn the administration of the islands over to the Republic of China...?
One major problem that we created with that idea was our de-recognition of Taiwan as the "Republic of China" for the purpose which nation would occupy China's seat on the UN Security Counsel. Regardless of how the Taiwan card is played, no discussions can proceed in the face of continued aggression. This seemingly "tempest in a tea pot", that draws very little major media attention in the United States yet has the real potential to lead to war between China and the United States. In such a war, no matter how unsavory the outcome relative to the sea that China wants to turn into a Chinese Lake; the U.S. has great potential for gain, and China can only suffer ruin even with some initial highly destructive hits on the U.S.
War with China reverses our present economic position relative to China. We at present are the debtor nation. Certainly one of our first return shots if attacked would be cancellation of our debt, virtually bankrupting China. We doubt that it would have any negative effects on our global credit rating as no one expects a nation at war to subsidize the war efforts of their enemy. Many individual U.S.investors in China would lose their investments but many jobs might return to the United States as we would be forced to replace many products presently made in China with American capital and know how. If the conflict can be kept conventional, Chinese maritime commerce and infrastructure would be destroyed. Our own damages while extensive would be regional in nature. If China escalated to nuclear they might get in a couple of hits on Hawaii and the West Coast, we would lose millions of people and suffer trillions in damage. China however would be reduced to a glow in the dark parking lot. Why any nation led by sane people would play these games of brinkmanship is unfathomable unless you factor in the low level of journalistic interest in this deadly game due to its at sea location. This is a game played in near darkness. Since China controls its own media only wide spread coverage of the strange and irresponsible behavior by the media in the outside world can alert people and the rank and file communist party members of the danger the leadership is putting them in.
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